TY  - JOUR
AU  - Bezdan, Atila
AU  - Bezdan, Jovana
AU  - Blagojević, Boško
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
AU  - Lazić, Irida
AU  - Tošić, Milica
AU  - Đurđević, Vladimir
PY  - 2024
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1458
AB  - One of the frequently used drought metrics in scientific research is the consecutive dry days (CDDs) because it effectively indicates short-term droughts important to ecosystems and agriculture. CDDs are expected to increase in many parts of the world in the future. In Serbia, both the frequency and severity of droughts have increased in recent decades, with most droughts being caused by a lack of precipitation during the warmer months of the year and an increase in evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. In this study, the frequency and duration of extreme CDDs in the growing season in Serbia were analysed for the past (1950-2019) and the future (2020-2100) period. The Threshold Level Method over precipitation data series was used to analyse CDD events, where extreme CDDs are defined as at least 15 consecutive days without precipitation. In contrast to the original definition of the CDD as the maximum number of consecutive days with precipitation less than 1 mm, here we defined the threshold that is more suitable for agriculture because field crops can experience water stress after 15 days of no rainfall or irrigation. An approach for modelling the stochastic process of extreme CDDs based on the Zelenhasi & cacute;-Todorovi & cacute; (ZT) method was applied in this research. The ZT method was modified by selecting a different distribution function for modelling the durations of the longest CDD events, enabling a more reliable calculation of probabilities of occurrences. According to the results, future droughts in Serbia are likely to be more frequent and severe than those in the past. The duration of the longest CDDs in a growing season will be extended in the future, lasting up to 62 days with a 10-year return period and up to 94 days with a 100-year return period. Results indicate a worsening of drought conditions, especially in the eastern and northern parts of Serbia. The results can help decision-makers adapt agricultural strategies to climate change by providing information on the expected durations of extreme rainless periods in future growing seasons. Although the analysis was performed in Serbia, it can be applied to any other region.
T2  - International Journal of Climatology
T1  - Observed characteristics and projected future changes of extreme consecutive dry days events of the growing season in Serbia
EP  - 4141
IS  - 11
SP  - 4127
VL  - 44
DO  - 10.1002/joc.8573
UR  - conv_1804
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Bezdan, Atila and Bezdan, Jovana and Blagojević, Boško and Baumgertel, Aleksandar and Lazić, Irida and Tošić, Milica and Đurđević, Vladimir",
year = "2024",
abstract = "One of the frequently used drought metrics in scientific research is the consecutive dry days (CDDs) because it effectively indicates short-term droughts important to ecosystems and agriculture. CDDs are expected to increase in many parts of the world in the future. In Serbia, both the frequency and severity of droughts have increased in recent decades, with most droughts being caused by a lack of precipitation during the warmer months of the year and an increase in evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. In this study, the frequency and duration of extreme CDDs in the growing season in Serbia were analysed for the past (1950-2019) and the future (2020-2100) period. The Threshold Level Method over precipitation data series was used to analyse CDD events, where extreme CDDs are defined as at least 15 consecutive days without precipitation. In contrast to the original definition of the CDD as the maximum number of consecutive days with precipitation less than 1 mm, here we defined the threshold that is more suitable for agriculture because field crops can experience water stress after 15 days of no rainfall or irrigation. An approach for modelling the stochastic process of extreme CDDs based on the Zelenhasi & cacute;-Todorovi & cacute; (ZT) method was applied in this research. The ZT method was modified by selecting a different distribution function for modelling the durations of the longest CDD events, enabling a more reliable calculation of probabilities of occurrences. According to the results, future droughts in Serbia are likely to be more frequent and severe than those in the past. The duration of the longest CDDs in a growing season will be extended in the future, lasting up to 62 days with a 10-year return period and up to 94 days with a 100-year return period. Results indicate a worsening of drought conditions, especially in the eastern and northern parts of Serbia. The results can help decision-makers adapt agricultural strategies to climate change by providing information on the expected durations of extreme rainless periods in future growing seasons. Although the analysis was performed in Serbia, it can be applied to any other region.",
journal = "International Journal of Climatology",
title = "Observed characteristics and projected future changes of extreme consecutive dry days events of the growing season in Serbia",
pages = "4141-4127",
number = "11",
volume = "44",
doi = "10.1002/joc.8573",
url = "conv_1804"
}

Bezdan, A., Bezdan, J., Blagojević, B., Baumgertel, A., Lazić, I., Tošić, M.,& Đurđević, V.. (2024). Observed characteristics and projected future changes of extreme consecutive dry days events of the growing season in Serbia. in International Journal of Climatology, 44(11), 4127-4141.
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8573
conv_1804

Bezdan A, Bezdan J, Blagojević B, Baumgertel A, Lazić I, Tošić M, Đurđević V. Observed characteristics and projected future changes of extreme consecutive dry days events of the growing season in Serbia. in International Journal of Climatology. 2024;44(11):4127-4141.
doi:10.1002/joc.8573
conv_1804 .

Bezdan, Atila, Bezdan, Jovana, Blagojević, Boško, Baumgertel, Aleksandar, Lazić, Irida, Tošić, Milica, Đurđević, Vladimir, "Observed characteristics and projected future changes of extreme consecutive dry days events of the growing season in Serbia" in International Journal of Climatology, 44, no. 11 (2024):4127-4141,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8573 .,
conv_1804 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
AU  - Lukić, Sara
AU  - Caković, Milica
AU  - Lazić, Irida
AU  - Tošić, Milica
AU  - Momirović, Natalija
AU  - Pandey, Shachi
AU  - Bezdan, Atila
AU  - Blagojević, Boško
AU  - Đurđević, Vladimir
PY  - 2024
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1495
AB  - Climate change has a potentially negative impact on the overall vitality of vegetation in both forested and agricultural areas. A comprehensive understanding of the interaction between climate and vegetation across various land cover types holds significant importance from multiple perspectives. This research examined the current state of vegetation trends and their interplay with climate parameters, specifically temperature and precipitation. Additionally, it aimed to provide insights into the anticipated changes in these climate parameters in the future, across the entire area of the Republic of Serbia. The vegetation was observed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from AVHRR/NOAA 11 satellite for the vegetation season (May-October) from 1981 to 2021, while the climate data records used the examination of the relationship between climate indicators and vegetation were monthly mean 2m temperature and precipitation obtained from the ERA5-Land (from April to October). The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test implemented with the Sen's slope estimator and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) was utilized to identify trends (for the NDVI and climate variables) and the strength of the correlation, respectively. To obtain the information of temperature and precipitation change in future (from 2071 to 2100), the ensemble mean of the eight climate models, for vegetation period and summer season (June-July-August) from the EURO-CORDEX database was used. Results show relatively high NDVI values ( gt  0.5) over the entire area and the statistically significant (p  lt  0.005) positive NDVI trend increasing (up to 0.0006 year(-1) from the north (mainly agriculture cover) to the south (forest cover). In agricultural areas, a positive statistically significant correlation (r = 0.4-0.6, p  lt  0.005) indicates that the quality of vegetation cover in rainfed agriculture is directly dependent on the amount of precipitation, which serves as the sole source of moisture input. In contrast, the situation differs in forested areas where the correlation between NDVI and precipitation is often statistically not significant (p  gt  0.005) indicating that forests, because of their characteristics, are less dependent on the amount of precipitation. Regarding temperature, in agricultural areas, there is a positive correlation with NDVI, although it does not reach statistical significance. Conversely, in forested areas, a significant positive correlation is observed between NDVI and temperature which even positively contributes to the development of forest vegetation. In future, the recorded decline in precipitation (a substantial 22.72% drop) and the concurrent rise in temperature (up to 4.39(degrees)C) in vegetation period, until 2100 might impact the reduction of NDVI.
T2  - International Journal of Environmental Research
T1  - Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Vegetation Response to Climate Change, Case Study: Republic of Serbia
IS  - 2
VL  - 18
DO  - 10.1007/s41742-024-00571-z
UR  - conv_1767
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Baumgertel, Aleksandar and Lukić, Sara and Caković, Milica and Lazić, Irida and Tošić, Milica and Momirović, Natalija and Pandey, Shachi and Bezdan, Atila and Blagojević, Boško and Đurđević, Vladimir",
year = "2024",
abstract = "Climate change has a potentially negative impact on the overall vitality of vegetation in both forested and agricultural areas. A comprehensive understanding of the interaction between climate and vegetation across various land cover types holds significant importance from multiple perspectives. This research examined the current state of vegetation trends and their interplay with climate parameters, specifically temperature and precipitation. Additionally, it aimed to provide insights into the anticipated changes in these climate parameters in the future, across the entire area of the Republic of Serbia. The vegetation was observed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from AVHRR/NOAA 11 satellite for the vegetation season (May-October) from 1981 to 2021, while the climate data records used the examination of the relationship between climate indicators and vegetation were monthly mean 2m temperature and precipitation obtained from the ERA5-Land (from April to October). The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test implemented with the Sen's slope estimator and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) was utilized to identify trends (for the NDVI and climate variables) and the strength of the correlation, respectively. To obtain the information of temperature and precipitation change in future (from 2071 to 2100), the ensemble mean of the eight climate models, for vegetation period and summer season (June-July-August) from the EURO-CORDEX database was used. Results show relatively high NDVI values ( gt  0.5) over the entire area and the statistically significant (p  lt  0.005) positive NDVI trend increasing (up to 0.0006 year(-1) from the north (mainly agriculture cover) to the south (forest cover). In agricultural areas, a positive statistically significant correlation (r = 0.4-0.6, p  lt  0.005) indicates that the quality of vegetation cover in rainfed agriculture is directly dependent on the amount of precipitation, which serves as the sole source of moisture input. In contrast, the situation differs in forested areas where the correlation between NDVI and precipitation is often statistically not significant (p  gt  0.005) indicating that forests, because of their characteristics, are less dependent on the amount of precipitation. Regarding temperature, in agricultural areas, there is a positive correlation with NDVI, although it does not reach statistical significance. Conversely, in forested areas, a significant positive correlation is observed between NDVI and temperature which even positively contributes to the development of forest vegetation. In future, the recorded decline in precipitation (a substantial 22.72% drop) and the concurrent rise in temperature (up to 4.39(degrees)C) in vegetation period, until 2100 might impact the reduction of NDVI.",
journal = "International Journal of Environmental Research",
title = "Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Vegetation Response to Climate Change, Case Study: Republic of Serbia",
number = "2",
volume = "18",
doi = "10.1007/s41742-024-00571-z",
url = "conv_1767"
}

Baumgertel, A., Lukić, S., Caković, M., Lazić, I., Tošić, M., Momirović, N., Pandey, S., Bezdan, A., Blagojević, B.,& Đurđević, V.. (2024). Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Vegetation Response to Climate Change, Case Study: Republic of Serbia. in International Journal of Environmental Research, 18(2).
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41742-024-00571-z
conv_1767

Baumgertel A, Lukić S, Caković M, Lazić I, Tošić M, Momirović N, Pandey S, Bezdan A, Blagojević B, Đurđević V. Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Vegetation Response to Climate Change, Case Study: Republic of Serbia. in International Journal of Environmental Research. 2024;18(2).
doi:10.1007/s41742-024-00571-z
conv_1767 .

Baumgertel, Aleksandar, Lukić, Sara, Caković, Milica, Lazić, Irida, Tošić, Milica, Momirović, Natalija, Pandey, Shachi, Bezdan, Atila, Blagojević, Boško, Đurđević, Vladimir, "Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Vegetation Response to Climate Change, Case Study: Republic of Serbia" in International Journal of Environmental Research, 18, no. 2 (2024),
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41742-024-00571-z .,
conv_1767 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Milanović, Slobodan
AU  - Mihailović, Dragutin T.
AU  - Lakićević, Milena
AU  - Đurđević, Vladimir
AU  - Malinović-Milićević, S.
AU  - Milanović, Slađan D.
AU  - Trailović, Zoran
PY  - 2023
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1446
AB  - The impact of climate change on insect pests is an emerging topic in forestry and forest science. This study investigates the relationships between two broadleaved forest pests – spongy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) and brown-tail moth (Euproctis chrysorrhoea L.) – and oaks (Quercus sp.) as their hosts. Oak forests cover almost one-third of the total forest area of Serbia and are ecologicallyvery valuable, but at the same time vulnerable, as being affected in adverse ways by several primary pests and pa-
PB  - Osterreichischer Agrarverlag GmbH
T2  - Austrian Journal of Forest Science
T1  - Auswirkungen von UV-Strahlung und Temperatur auf den Schwammspinner und den Goldafter in Serbien
T1  - Impact of UV radiation and temperature on the spongy moth and the brown-tail moth in Serbia
EP  - 20
IS  - 1
SP  - 1
DO  - 10.53203/fs.2301.1
UR  - conv_1890
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Milanović, Slobodan and Mihailović, Dragutin T. and Lakićević, Milena and Đurđević, Vladimir and Malinović-Milićević, S. and Milanović, Slađan D. and Trailović, Zoran",
year = "2023",
abstract = "The impact of climate change on insect pests is an emerging topic in forestry and forest science. This study investigates the relationships between two broadleaved forest pests – spongy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) and brown-tail moth (Euproctis chrysorrhoea L.) – and oaks (Quercus sp.) as their hosts. Oak forests cover almost one-third of the total forest area of Serbia and are ecologicallyvery valuable, but at the same time vulnerable, as being affected in adverse ways by several primary pests and pa-",
publisher = "Osterreichischer Agrarverlag GmbH",
journal = "Austrian Journal of Forest Science",
title = "Auswirkungen von UV-Strahlung und Temperatur auf den Schwammspinner und den Goldafter in Serbien, Impact of UV radiation and temperature on the spongy moth and the brown-tail moth in Serbia",
pages = "20-1",
number = "1",
doi = "10.53203/fs.2301.1",
url = "conv_1890"
}

Milanović, S., Mihailović, D. T., Lakićević, M., Đurđević, V., Malinović-Milićević, S., Milanović, S. D.,& Trailović, Z.. (2023). Auswirkungen von UV-Strahlung und Temperatur auf den Schwammspinner und den Goldafter in Serbien. in Austrian Journal of Forest Science
Osterreichischer Agrarverlag GmbH.(1), 1-20.
https://doi.org/10.53203/fs.2301.1
conv_1890

Milanović S, Mihailović DT, Lakićević M, Đurđević V, Malinović-Milićević S, Milanović SD, Trailović Z. Auswirkungen von UV-Strahlung und Temperatur auf den Schwammspinner und den Goldafter in Serbien. in Austrian Journal of Forest Science. 2023;(1):1-20.
doi:10.53203/fs.2301.1
conv_1890 .

Milanović, Slobodan, Mihailović, Dragutin T., Lakićević, Milena, Đurđević, Vladimir, Malinović-Milićević, S., Milanović, Slađan D., Trailović, Zoran, "Auswirkungen von UV-Strahlung und Temperatur auf den Schwammspinner und den Goldafter in Serbien" in Austrian Journal of Forest Science, no. 1 (2023):1-20,
https://doi.org/10.53203/fs.2301.1 .,
conv_1890 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Milanović, Slobodan
AU  - Mihailović, Dragutin T.
AU  - Lakićević, Milena
AU  - Đurđević, Vladimir
AU  - Malinović-Milicević, Slavica
AU  - Milanović, Slađan D.
AU  - Trailović, Zoran
PY  - 2023
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1438
AB  - The impact of climate change on insect pests is an emerging topic in forestry and forest science. This study investigates the relationships between two broadleaved forest pests - spongy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) and brown-tail moth (Euproctis chry-sorrhoea L.) - and oaks (Quercus sp.) as their hosts. Oak forests cover almost one-third of the total forest area of Serbia and are ecologicallyvery valuable, but at the same time vulnerable, as being affected in adverse ways by several primary pests and pathogens. Since 1862, Serbia experienced several extremely large outbreaks of spongy moth with more than a hundred thousand hectares completely defoliated each time, while brown-tail moth occurred periodically with a much lower spatial extent. The aim of this research was to investigate the effect of UV radiation (UVR) and air tempe-rature on spongy moth and brown-tail moth in Serbian forests. We used simulations of the coupled regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model) for the A1B scenario for the period 2001-2030 as main input and diffe-rent statistical methods to explore relationships between observations of pest spread and climate change impacts. Our results suggest(i) increasing the areas affected by spongy moth due to its sensitivity on UVR in May, and(ii) altitudinal spreading of brown-tail moth population up to 800 - 1000 m.This research indicates that in situ forest observations in Serbia are not only affected by climate change, but also by the combined effect of climate on forest pests. For fur-ther research, we recommend exploring other forest stressors or dieback phenomena in European forests by applying the same or similar regional climate model dataset.
T2  - Austrian Journal of Forest Science
T1  - Impact of UV radiation and temperature on the spongy moth and the brown-tail moth in Serbia
EP  - 20
IS  - 1
SP  - 1
VL  - 140
UR  - conv_1697
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Milanović, Slobodan and Mihailović, Dragutin T. and Lakićević, Milena and Đurđević, Vladimir and Malinović-Milicević, Slavica and Milanović, Slađan D. and Trailović, Zoran",
year = "2023",
abstract = "The impact of climate change on insect pests is an emerging topic in forestry and forest science. This study investigates the relationships between two broadleaved forest pests - spongy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) and brown-tail moth (Euproctis chry-sorrhoea L.) - and oaks (Quercus sp.) as their hosts. Oak forests cover almost one-third of the total forest area of Serbia and are ecologicallyvery valuable, but at the same time vulnerable, as being affected in adverse ways by several primary pests and pathogens. Since 1862, Serbia experienced several extremely large outbreaks of spongy moth with more than a hundred thousand hectares completely defoliated each time, while brown-tail moth occurred periodically with a much lower spatial extent. The aim of this research was to investigate the effect of UV radiation (UVR) and air tempe-rature on spongy moth and brown-tail moth in Serbian forests. We used simulations of the coupled regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model) for the A1B scenario for the period 2001-2030 as main input and diffe-rent statistical methods to explore relationships between observations of pest spread and climate change impacts. Our results suggest(i) increasing the areas affected by spongy moth due to its sensitivity on UVR in May, and(ii) altitudinal spreading of brown-tail moth population up to 800 - 1000 m.This research indicates that in situ forest observations in Serbia are not only affected by climate change, but also by the combined effect of climate on forest pests. For fur-ther research, we recommend exploring other forest stressors or dieback phenomena in European forests by applying the same or similar regional climate model dataset.",
journal = "Austrian Journal of Forest Science",
title = "Impact of UV radiation and temperature on the spongy moth and the brown-tail moth in Serbia",
pages = "20-1",
number = "1",
volume = "140",
url = "conv_1697"
}

Milanović, S., Mihailović, D. T., Lakićević, M., Đurđević, V., Malinović-Milicević, S., Milanović, S. D.,& Trailović, Z.. (2023). Impact of UV radiation and temperature on the spongy moth and the brown-tail moth in Serbia. in Austrian Journal of Forest Science, 140(1), 1-20.
conv_1697

Milanović S, Mihailović DT, Lakićević M, Đurđević V, Malinović-Milicević S, Milanović SD, Trailović Z. Impact of UV radiation and temperature on the spongy moth and the brown-tail moth in Serbia. in Austrian Journal of Forest Science. 2023;140(1):1-20.
conv_1697 .

Milanović, Slobodan, Mihailović, Dragutin T., Lakićević, Milena, Đurđević, Vladimir, Malinović-Milicević, Slavica, Milanović, Slađan D., Trailović, Zoran, "Impact of UV radiation and temperature on the spongy moth and the brown-tail moth in Serbia" in Austrian Journal of Forest Science, 140, no. 1 (2023):1-20,
conv_1697 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Obratov-Petković, Dragica
AU  - Beloica, Jelena
AU  - Čavlović, Dragana
AU  - Đurđević, Vladimir
AU  - Belanović Simić, Snežana
AU  - Bjedov, Ivana
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1353
AB  - The structure and function of many forest ecosystems will be modified as a result of air pollution and climate change. Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) forests are among the first terrestrial ecosystems to respond to this change. We analysed how changes in climate and environmental factors will affect vegetation cover in Norway spruce forests and whether it is possible to assemble a list of diagnostically important/sensitive species that would be the first to react to changes in habitats of Norway spruce in Central Balkan. Significant changes in the vegetation cover of Norway spruce forests are mainly influenced by temperature increases (approximate to 4 degrees C), and precipitation decreases (approximate to 102 mm) by the end of the 21st century. Projections show that vegetation cover changes and future habitat conditions for Norway spruce forests on podzolic brown soils with a low base saturation and soil pH decreases, and temperature growth and precipitation decline, with the worst in the Rodope montane forest ecoregion. In Dinaric Mountain and Balkan mixed forest ecoregions, the range of natural occurrence of Norway spruce forest will shift to higher altitudes, or to the north. One of the cognitions of this paper is that, through available environmental models and their indices, species from the IUCN Red List should be recognised more properly and included in model calculations.
T2  - Forests
T1  - Modelling Response of Norway Spruce Forest Vegetation to Projected Climate and Environmental Changes in Central Balkans Using Different Sets of Species
IS  - 5
VL  - 13
DO  - 10.3390/f13050666
UR  - conv_1640
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Obratov-Petković, Dragica and Beloica, Jelena and Čavlović, Dragana and Đurđević, Vladimir and Belanović Simić, Snežana and Bjedov, Ivana",
year = "2022",
abstract = "The structure and function of many forest ecosystems will be modified as a result of air pollution and climate change. Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) forests are among the first terrestrial ecosystems to respond to this change. We analysed how changes in climate and environmental factors will affect vegetation cover in Norway spruce forests and whether it is possible to assemble a list of diagnostically important/sensitive species that would be the first to react to changes in habitats of Norway spruce in Central Balkan. Significant changes in the vegetation cover of Norway spruce forests are mainly influenced by temperature increases (approximate to 4 degrees C), and precipitation decreases (approximate to 102 mm) by the end of the 21st century. Projections show that vegetation cover changes and future habitat conditions for Norway spruce forests on podzolic brown soils with a low base saturation and soil pH decreases, and temperature growth and precipitation decline, with the worst in the Rodope montane forest ecoregion. In Dinaric Mountain and Balkan mixed forest ecoregions, the range of natural occurrence of Norway spruce forest will shift to higher altitudes, or to the north. One of the cognitions of this paper is that, through available environmental models and their indices, species from the IUCN Red List should be recognised more properly and included in model calculations.",
journal = "Forests",
title = "Modelling Response of Norway Spruce Forest Vegetation to Projected Climate and Environmental Changes in Central Balkans Using Different Sets of Species",
number = "5",
volume = "13",
doi = "10.3390/f13050666",
url = "conv_1640"
}

Obratov-Petković, D., Beloica, J., Čavlović, D., Đurđević, V., Belanović Simić, S.,& Bjedov, I.. (2022). Modelling Response of Norway Spruce Forest Vegetation to Projected Climate and Environmental Changes in Central Balkans Using Different Sets of Species. in Forests, 13(5).
https://doi.org/10.3390/f13050666
conv_1640

Obratov-Petković D, Beloica J, Čavlović D, Đurđević V, Belanović Simić S, Bjedov I. Modelling Response of Norway Spruce Forest Vegetation to Projected Climate and Environmental Changes in Central Balkans Using Different Sets of Species. in Forests. 2022;13(5).
doi:10.3390/f13050666
conv_1640 .

Obratov-Petković, Dragica, Beloica, Jelena, Čavlović, Dragana, Đurđević, Vladimir, Belanović Simić, Snežana, Bjedov, Ivana, "Modelling Response of Norway Spruce Forest Vegetation to Projected Climate and Environmental Changes in Central Balkans Using Different Sets of Species" in Forests, 13, no. 5 (2022),
https://doi.org/10.3390/f13050666 .,
conv_1640 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
AU  - Lukić, Sara
AU  - Caković, Milica
AU  - Miljković, Predrag
AU  - Tošić, Milica
AU  - Lazić, Irida
AU  - Đurđević, Vladimir
AU  - Marković, Mladen
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1291
AB  - Climate indicators (temperature and precipitation) are particularly important in times of global climate change because they create the preconditions for the development of wind erosion. The main goal of this research is to analyse the land's susceptibility to wind erosion in the future, using the fuzzy logic for the non-growing season (March and November) as well as for the growing season (July). The climate factor (CF) has been calculated for four different time periods: 1971-2000, 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The data were extracted for 11 different combinations of regional climate models (RCMs) and global climate models (GCMs) using the EURO-CORDEX database. The climate sensitivity to wind erosion is bound to be significantly higher in the growing season (late 21st century) due to the increase in the average monthly air temperature and the decrease in precipitation.
T2  - International Journal of Global Warming
T1  - Spatiotemporal analysis of the future sensitivity to wind erosion using ensemble of the regional climate models: a case study
EP  - 299
IS  - 3
SP  - 284
VL  - 27
DO  - 10.1504/IJGW.2022.124203
UR  - conv_1646
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Baumgertel, Aleksandar and Lukić, Sara and Caković, Milica and Miljković, Predrag and Tošić, Milica and Lazić, Irida and Đurđević, Vladimir and Marković, Mladen",
year = "2022",
abstract = "Climate indicators (temperature and precipitation) are particularly important in times of global climate change because they create the preconditions for the development of wind erosion. The main goal of this research is to analyse the land's susceptibility to wind erosion in the future, using the fuzzy logic for the non-growing season (March and November) as well as for the growing season (July). The climate factor (CF) has been calculated for four different time periods: 1971-2000, 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The data were extracted for 11 different combinations of regional climate models (RCMs) and global climate models (GCMs) using the EURO-CORDEX database. The climate sensitivity to wind erosion is bound to be significantly higher in the growing season (late 21st century) due to the increase in the average monthly air temperature and the decrease in precipitation.",
journal = "International Journal of Global Warming",
title = "Spatiotemporal analysis of the future sensitivity to wind erosion using ensemble of the regional climate models: a case study",
pages = "299-284",
number = "3",
volume = "27",
doi = "10.1504/IJGW.2022.124203",
url = "conv_1646"
}

Baumgertel, A., Lukić, S., Caković, M., Miljković, P., Tošić, M., Lazić, I., Đurđević, V.,& Marković, M.. (2022). Spatiotemporal analysis of the future sensitivity to wind erosion using ensemble of the regional climate models: a case study. in International Journal of Global Warming, 27(3), 284-299.
https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2022.124203
conv_1646

Baumgertel A, Lukić S, Caković M, Miljković P, Tošić M, Lazić I, Đurđević V, Marković M. Spatiotemporal analysis of the future sensitivity to wind erosion using ensemble of the regional climate models: a case study. in International Journal of Global Warming. 2022;27(3):284-299.
doi:10.1504/IJGW.2022.124203
conv_1646 .

Baumgertel, Aleksandar, Lukić, Sara, Caković, Milica, Miljković, Predrag, Tošić, Milica, Lazić, Irida, Đurđević, Vladimir, Marković, Mladen, "Spatiotemporal analysis of the future sensitivity to wind erosion using ensemble of the regional climate models: a case study" in International Journal of Global Warming, 27, no. 3 (2022):284-299,
https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2022.124203 .,
conv_1646 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Erić, Ranka
AU  - Kadović, Ratko
AU  - Đurđević, Vladimir
AU  - Đukić, Vesna
PY  - 2021
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1235
AB  - This paper presents the results of a study focused on the projected changes in extreme precipitation during the 21st century in Central Serbia. The changes are investigated on the basis of historical and modelled data sets of daily precipitation. The historical observation data were recorded at 18 synoptic weather stations in Central Serbia and modelled data were extracted from the regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model) under the A1B scenario. The average number of days in a year with precipition  gt = 20, 30, 40 and 50 mm (R20, R30, R40 and R50), the share of daily precipitation above the 20, 30, 40 and 50 mm (P20, P30, P40, P50) in the total annual precipitation and the monthly distribution of these heavy daily precipitation are used as indices of changes in extreme precipitation. These indices, for the three periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, are determined and compared with those obtained for the historical reference period 1961-1990. The results have shown that the main changes in extreme precipitation in Central Serbia will be in their spatial distribution, and the uncertainty of the occurrence of extreme events will decrease. In the future the increase will be more pronounced than the decrease of these indices. We strongly emphasize the benefit of this paper for both the prevention of natural disasters in the study area and for the improvement of the regional climate model.
T2  - Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics
T1  - Future changes in extreme precipitation in central Serbia
EP  - 208
IS  - 2
SP  - 196
VL  - 69
DO  - 10.2478/johh-2021-0006
UR  - conv_1550
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Erić, Ranka and Kadović, Ratko and Đurđević, Vladimir and Đukić, Vesna",
year = "2021",
abstract = "This paper presents the results of a study focused on the projected changes in extreme precipitation during the 21st century in Central Serbia. The changes are investigated on the basis of historical and modelled data sets of daily precipitation. The historical observation data were recorded at 18 synoptic weather stations in Central Serbia and modelled data were extracted from the regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model) under the A1B scenario. The average number of days in a year with precipition  gt = 20, 30, 40 and 50 mm (R20, R30, R40 and R50), the share of daily precipitation above the 20, 30, 40 and 50 mm (P20, P30, P40, P50) in the total annual precipitation and the monthly distribution of these heavy daily precipitation are used as indices of changes in extreme precipitation. These indices, for the three periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, are determined and compared with those obtained for the historical reference period 1961-1990. The results have shown that the main changes in extreme precipitation in Central Serbia will be in their spatial distribution, and the uncertainty of the occurrence of extreme events will decrease. In the future the increase will be more pronounced than the decrease of these indices. We strongly emphasize the benefit of this paper for both the prevention of natural disasters in the study area and for the improvement of the regional climate model.",
journal = "Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics",
title = "Future changes in extreme precipitation in central Serbia",
pages = "208-196",
number = "2",
volume = "69",
doi = "10.2478/johh-2021-0006",
url = "conv_1550"
}

Erić, R., Kadović, R., Đurđević, V.,& Đukić, V.. (2021). Future changes in extreme precipitation in central Serbia. in Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 69(2), 196-208.
https://doi.org/10.2478/johh-2021-0006
conv_1550

Erić R, Kadović R, Đurđević V, Đukić V. Future changes in extreme precipitation in central Serbia. in Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics. 2021;69(2):196-208.
doi:10.2478/johh-2021-0006
conv_1550 .

Erić, Ranka, Kadović, Ratko, Đurđević, Vladimir, Đukić, Vesna, "Future changes in extreme precipitation in central Serbia" in Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 69, no. 2 (2021):196-208,
https://doi.org/10.2478/johh-2021-0006 .,
conv_1550 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Vuković, Ana J.
AU  - Vujadinović, Mirjam
AU  - Rendulić, Sonja M.
AU  - Đurđević, Vladimir
AU  - Ruml, Mirjana
AU  - Babić, Violeta
AU  - Popović, Dunja P.
PY  - 2018
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/932
AB  - Serbia is situated at Balkan Peninsula, and currently majority of the territory is under warm temperate fully humid climate type with warm summers (Cfb type, according to Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification). Observed changes in climate conditions since 1961 until present time show significant increase in temperature change and change in precipitation patterns. Disturbances in heat conditions, which are recorded to affect human health, agricultural production and forest ecosystem, are priority in climate change analysis and application in adaptation planning. Future change analysis show accelerated increase of temperature by the end of the 21st century, which proves the needs for immediate measures for mitigation of negative impacts. Temperature increase averaged over the territory of Serbia is 1.2 degrees C for the period 1996-2015 with respect to the period 1961-1980, with highest increase of maximum daily temperature during the summer season, 2.2 degrees C. Using high resolution multi-model ensemble approach for analysis of the future changes with respect to the base period 1986-2005, in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (ARS), it is estimated that temperature may increase by 1.9 degrees C according to Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and by 4.4 degrees C according to RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Spatial distribution of temperature increase, intensification of high precipitation events and decrease of summer precipitation, show intrusion of subtropical climate over the Serbia and increase of high temperature and high precipitation risks. Results presented in this paper, using high-resolution multi-model ensemble approach, provide climate change information for short term to long term planning in different sectors of economy and preservation of human health and environment.
PB  - Univerzitet u Beogradu - Institut za nuklearne nauke Vinča, Beograd
T2  - Thermal Science
T1  - Global warming impact on climate change in Serbia for the period 1961-2100
EP  - 2280
IS  - 6
SP  - 2267
VL  - 22
DO  - 10.2298/TSCI180411168V
UR  - conv_1384
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Vuković, Ana J. and Vujadinović, Mirjam and Rendulić, Sonja M. and Đurđević, Vladimir and Ruml, Mirjana and Babić, Violeta and Popović, Dunja P.",
year = "2018",
abstract = "Serbia is situated at Balkan Peninsula, and currently majority of the territory is under warm temperate fully humid climate type with warm summers (Cfb type, according to Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification). Observed changes in climate conditions since 1961 until present time show significant increase in temperature change and change in precipitation patterns. Disturbances in heat conditions, which are recorded to affect human health, agricultural production and forest ecosystem, are priority in climate change analysis and application in adaptation planning. Future change analysis show accelerated increase of temperature by the end of the 21st century, which proves the needs for immediate measures for mitigation of negative impacts. Temperature increase averaged over the territory of Serbia is 1.2 degrees C for the period 1996-2015 with respect to the period 1961-1980, with highest increase of maximum daily temperature during the summer season, 2.2 degrees C. Using high resolution multi-model ensemble approach for analysis of the future changes with respect to the base period 1986-2005, in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (ARS), it is estimated that temperature may increase by 1.9 degrees C according to Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and by 4.4 degrees C according to RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Spatial distribution of temperature increase, intensification of high precipitation events and decrease of summer precipitation, show intrusion of subtropical climate over the Serbia and increase of high temperature and high precipitation risks. Results presented in this paper, using high-resolution multi-model ensemble approach, provide climate change information for short term to long term planning in different sectors of economy and preservation of human health and environment.",
publisher = "Univerzitet u Beogradu - Institut za nuklearne nauke Vinča, Beograd",
journal = "Thermal Science",
title = "Global warming impact on climate change in Serbia for the period 1961-2100",
pages = "2280-2267",
number = "6",
volume = "22",
doi = "10.2298/TSCI180411168V",
url = "conv_1384"
}

Vuković, A. J., Vujadinović, M., Rendulić, S. M., Đurđević, V., Ruml, M., Babić, V.,& Popović, D. P.. (2018). Global warming impact on climate change in Serbia for the period 1961-2100. in Thermal Science
Univerzitet u Beogradu - Institut za nuklearne nauke Vinča, Beograd., 22(6), 2267-2280.
https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI180411168V
conv_1384

Vuković AJ, Vujadinović M, Rendulić SM, Đurđević V, Ruml M, Babić V, Popović DP. Global warming impact on climate change in Serbia for the period 1961-2100. in Thermal Science. 2018;22(6):2267-2280.
doi:10.2298/TSCI180411168V
conv_1384 .

Vuković, Ana J., Vujadinović, Mirjam, Rendulić, Sonja M., Đurđević, Vladimir, Ruml, Mirjana, Babić, Violeta, Popović, Dunja P., "Global warming impact on climate change in Serbia for the period 1961-2100" in Thermal Science, 22, no. 6 (2018):2267-2280,
https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI180411168V .,
conv_1384 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Čavlović, Dragana
AU  - Beloica, Jelena
AU  - Obratov-Petković, Dragica
AU  - Đurđević, Vladimir
AU  - Košanin, Olivera
PY  - 2017
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/863
AB  - Intense direct and indirect human pressure has been imposed on grasslands throughout their range. Mostly due to the constant need for more food production or due to changes in environmental conditions, grasslands as habitats are expected to become highly endangered. The aim of this study was to estimate the grasslands' ecological response to future climate and environmental changes. The study took place in three ecologically different grassland communities in three protected natural areas of Serbia (Southeastern Europe), following the same methodology. The study sites were: 1) Pestersko polje Special Nature Reserve (SNR), 2) Deliblato sands SNR (its southern part: Labudovo okno) and 3) Zasavica SNR. Climate change was simulated for mean temperatures and precipitations using the Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model (EBU-POM) climate model, for the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario covering the 1951-2100 period and insolation and volumetric soil moisture content for the 1979-2100 period. Grassland vegetation was analysed at all three sites. One representative plant community per site was selected for further analysis and simulation of ecological changes. One plot was positioned inside each of the above-mentioned communities, all vascular plant species inside the plot were recorded, and soil samples were taken. Ecological Optima (EO) for moisture and temperature were calculated from modified Ellenberg's plant indicator values of recorded species. The plants' response to climate and environmental changes was simulated using the VSD+ model for the 2010-2100 period. The data obtained from the model were further analysed with Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). Overall results show that the temperature rise, along with the irregular precipitation at all three sites, will lead to a drop of the relative abundance of many native species in the period between 2040 and 2060. The low obtained Habitat Suitability Index for the future means that there will be either unfavourable environmental conditions for the development of grasslands, or the species we analysed were untypical. Cosmopolitans and xerothermic species will be more accustomed to the new conditions. Grasses will be the most resilient functional group according to our study. It may be concluded that the functional group of grasses will also play the leading role in future grasslands at the studied sites.
T2  - Tuexenia
T1  - Simulation of long-term changes in environmental factors and grassland composition in three protected areas of Serbia
EP  - 446
IS  - 37
SP  - 431
DO  - 10.14471/2017.37.017
UR  - conv_1300
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Čavlović, Dragana and Beloica, Jelena and Obratov-Petković, Dragica and Đurđević, Vladimir and Košanin, Olivera",
year = "2017",
abstract = "Intense direct and indirect human pressure has been imposed on grasslands throughout their range. Mostly due to the constant need for more food production or due to changes in environmental conditions, grasslands as habitats are expected to become highly endangered. The aim of this study was to estimate the grasslands' ecological response to future climate and environmental changes. The study took place in three ecologically different grassland communities in three protected natural areas of Serbia (Southeastern Europe), following the same methodology. The study sites were: 1) Pestersko polje Special Nature Reserve (SNR), 2) Deliblato sands SNR (its southern part: Labudovo okno) and 3) Zasavica SNR. Climate change was simulated for mean temperatures and precipitations using the Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model (EBU-POM) climate model, for the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario covering the 1951-2100 period and insolation and volumetric soil moisture content for the 1979-2100 period. Grassland vegetation was analysed at all three sites. One representative plant community per site was selected for further analysis and simulation of ecological changes. One plot was positioned inside each of the above-mentioned communities, all vascular plant species inside the plot were recorded, and soil samples were taken. Ecological Optima (EO) for moisture and temperature were calculated from modified Ellenberg's plant indicator values of recorded species. The plants' response to climate and environmental changes was simulated using the VSD+ model for the 2010-2100 period. The data obtained from the model were further analysed with Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). Overall results show that the temperature rise, along with the irregular precipitation at all three sites, will lead to a drop of the relative abundance of many native species in the period between 2040 and 2060. The low obtained Habitat Suitability Index for the future means that there will be either unfavourable environmental conditions for the development of grasslands, or the species we analysed were untypical. Cosmopolitans and xerothermic species will be more accustomed to the new conditions. Grasses will be the most resilient functional group according to our study. It may be concluded that the functional group of grasses will also play the leading role in future grasslands at the studied sites.",
journal = "Tuexenia",
title = "Simulation of long-term changes in environmental factors and grassland composition in three protected areas of Serbia",
pages = "446-431",
number = "37",
doi = "10.14471/2017.37.017",
url = "conv_1300"
}

Čavlović, D., Beloica, J., Obratov-Petković, D., Đurđević, V.,& Košanin, O.. (2017). Simulation of long-term changes in environmental factors and grassland composition in three protected areas of Serbia. in Tuexenia(37), 431-446.
https://doi.org/10.14471/2017.37.017
conv_1300

Čavlović D, Beloica J, Obratov-Petković D, Đurđević V, Košanin O. Simulation of long-term changes in environmental factors and grassland composition in three protected areas of Serbia. in Tuexenia. 2017;(37):431-446.
doi:10.14471/2017.37.017
conv_1300 .

Čavlović, Dragana, Beloica, Jelena, Obratov-Petković, Dragica, Đurđević, Vladimir, Košanin, Olivera, "Simulation of long-term changes in environmental factors and grassland composition in three protected areas of Serbia" in Tuexenia, no. 37 (2017):431-446,
https://doi.org/10.14471/2017.37.017 .,
conv_1300 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Čavlović, Dragana
AU  - Obratov-Petković, Dragica
AU  - Ocokoljić, Mirjana
AU  - Đurđević, Vladimir
PY  - 2012
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/449
AB  - Vlažna staništa se ubrajaju među najosetljivija na planeti. U njihovom sklopu nalaze se i veoma kompleksni šumski ekosistemi. Istraživanja i analize šumske vegetacije dovode do zaključka o ekološkim uslovima koji vladaju na vlažnim staništima. Cilj rada je da se detaljno prouči i analizira uticaj klimatskih promena na šumsku vegetaciju na području najstrože zaštite Specijalnog rezervata prirode Zasavica. Istraživanja na terenu su izvršena metodom ciriško-monpelješke škole Braun-Blanquet-a. Da bi se došlo do indikatorskih svojstava biljaka iz šumskih zajednica na vlažnim staništima određeni su florno-geografski elementi i životne forme. Povezani regionalni klimatski model EBU-POM se koristi za klimatske simulacije. Tačni klimatski parametri za ovaj lokalitet su dobijeni metodom 'downscaling'-a. Referentni klimatski parametri su uzeti za period 1961-1990, a simulacija klimatskih promena je urađena za period 2071-2100 (A1B i A2 scenario). Uzete su u obzir indikatorske vrednosti šumskih biljaka za vlažnost i toplotu, dakle ekološki optimumi su određeni na skali vlažnosti i toplote. Regionalni klimatski model pokazuje da će u budućnosti postojati dug i intenzivan sušni period, praćen visokim temperaturama od aprila do oktobra. Kontinentalna zima će imati vlažniji karakter sa povećanim padavinama, naročito u februaru. Analizom rezultata došlo se do zaključka da su vlažna staništa prelaznog karaktera, veoma varijabilna, a samim tim i osetljiva na promene koje mogu da dovedu do iščezavanja nekih biljnih vrsta.
AB  - Wetlands are among the most vulnerable habitats on the planet. Very complex forest ecosystems are also parts of wetlands. Research and analysis of forest vegetation elements, leads to a conclusion about ecological conditions of wetlands. The aim of the paper is detail forest vegetation study, and analyzing the impact of climate changes on wetland forest vegetations of the strict protection area at the SNR Zasavica Ramsar site. Field research was carried out by using Braun-Blanquet's Zurich-Montpelier school method. Phytogeographical elements and life forms of plants were determined subsequently, in order to get indicator values of wetland plants. Coupled Regional Climate Model (CRCM), EBU-POM was used for the climate simulations. Exact climatic variables for the site were determined by downscaling method. Climatic variables reference values were taken for the period of 1961-1990, and climate change simulations for the period 2071-2100 (A1B and A2). Indicator values of forest plants taken into consideration were humidity and temperature; therefore, ecological optimums were determined in scales of humidity and temperature. Regional Climate Model shows that there will be a long and intensive dry period in the future, with high temperatures from April till October. Continental winter will be more humid, with higher precipitation, especially in February. Based on the analysis of results it was concluded that wetlands are transitional habitats, also very variable and therefore vulnerable to changes. The changes may lead to the extinction of some plant species.
PB  - Univerzitet u Beogradu - Šumarski fakultet, Beograd
T2  - Glasnik Šumarskog fakulteta
T1  - Uticaj klimatskih promena na biljke šumskih zajednica Specijalnog rezervata prirode Zasavica
T1  - Climate change impact on wetland forest plants of SNR Zasavica
EP  - 34
IS  - 105
SP  - 17
DO  - 10.2298/GSF1205017C
UR  - conv_354
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Čavlović, Dragana and Obratov-Petković, Dragica and Ocokoljić, Mirjana and Đurđević, Vladimir",
year = "2012",
abstract = "Vlažna staništa se ubrajaju među najosetljivija na planeti. U njihovom sklopu nalaze se i veoma kompleksni šumski ekosistemi. Istraživanja i analize šumske vegetacije dovode do zaključka o ekološkim uslovima koji vladaju na vlažnim staništima. Cilj rada je da se detaljno prouči i analizira uticaj klimatskih promena na šumsku vegetaciju na području najstrože zaštite Specijalnog rezervata prirode Zasavica. Istraživanja na terenu su izvršena metodom ciriško-monpelješke škole Braun-Blanquet-a. Da bi se došlo do indikatorskih svojstava biljaka iz šumskih zajednica na vlažnim staništima određeni su florno-geografski elementi i životne forme. Povezani regionalni klimatski model EBU-POM se koristi za klimatske simulacije. Tačni klimatski parametri za ovaj lokalitet su dobijeni metodom 'downscaling'-a. Referentni klimatski parametri su uzeti za period 1961-1990, a simulacija klimatskih promena je urađena za period 2071-2100 (A1B i A2 scenario). Uzete su u obzir indikatorske vrednosti šumskih biljaka za vlažnost i toplotu, dakle ekološki optimumi su određeni na skali vlažnosti i toplote. Regionalni klimatski model pokazuje da će u budućnosti postojati dug i intenzivan sušni period, praćen visokim temperaturama od aprila do oktobra. Kontinentalna zima će imati vlažniji karakter sa povećanim padavinama, naročito u februaru. Analizom rezultata došlo se do zaključka da su vlažna staništa prelaznog karaktera, veoma varijabilna, a samim tim i osetljiva na promene koje mogu da dovedu do iščezavanja nekih biljnih vrsta., Wetlands are among the most vulnerable habitats on the planet. Very complex forest ecosystems are also parts of wetlands. Research and analysis of forest vegetation elements, leads to a conclusion about ecological conditions of wetlands. The aim of the paper is detail forest vegetation study, and analyzing the impact of climate changes on wetland forest vegetations of the strict protection area at the SNR Zasavica Ramsar site. Field research was carried out by using Braun-Blanquet's Zurich-Montpelier school method. Phytogeographical elements and life forms of plants were determined subsequently, in order to get indicator values of wetland plants. Coupled Regional Climate Model (CRCM), EBU-POM was used for the climate simulations. Exact climatic variables for the site were determined by downscaling method. Climatic variables reference values were taken for the period of 1961-1990, and climate change simulations for the period 2071-2100 (A1B and A2). Indicator values of forest plants taken into consideration were humidity and temperature; therefore, ecological optimums were determined in scales of humidity and temperature. Regional Climate Model shows that there will be a long and intensive dry period in the future, with high temperatures from April till October. Continental winter will be more humid, with higher precipitation, especially in February. Based on the analysis of results it was concluded that wetlands are transitional habitats, also very variable and therefore vulnerable to changes. The changes may lead to the extinction of some plant species.",
publisher = "Univerzitet u Beogradu - Šumarski fakultet, Beograd",
journal = "Glasnik Šumarskog fakulteta",
title = "Uticaj klimatskih promena na biljke šumskih zajednica Specijalnog rezervata prirode Zasavica, Climate change impact on wetland forest plants of SNR Zasavica",
pages = "34-17",
number = "105",
doi = "10.2298/GSF1205017C",
url = "conv_354"
}

Čavlović, D., Obratov-Petković, D., Ocokoljić, M.,& Đurđević, V.. (2012). Uticaj klimatskih promena na biljke šumskih zajednica Specijalnog rezervata prirode Zasavica. in Glasnik Šumarskog fakulteta
Univerzitet u Beogradu - Šumarski fakultet, Beograd.(105), 17-34.
https://doi.org/10.2298/GSF1205017C
conv_354

Čavlović D, Obratov-Petković D, Ocokoljić M, Đurđević V. Uticaj klimatskih promena na biljke šumskih zajednica Specijalnog rezervata prirode Zasavica. in Glasnik Šumarskog fakulteta. 2012;(105):17-34.
doi:10.2298/GSF1205017C
conv_354 .

Čavlović, Dragana, Obratov-Petković, Dragica, Ocokoljić, Mirjana, Đurđević, Vladimir, "Uticaj klimatskih promena na biljke šumskih zajednica Specijalnog rezervata prirode Zasavica" in Glasnik Šumarskog fakulteta, no. 105 (2012):17-34,
https://doi.org/10.2298/GSF1205017C .,
conv_354 .