Simulation of long-term changes in environmental factors and grassland composition in three protected areas of Serbia
Само за регистроване кориснике
2017
Аутори
Čavlović, Dragana
Beloica, Jelena

Obratov-Petković, Dragica

Đurđević, Vladimir

Košanin, Olivera

Чланак у часопису (Објављена верзија)

Метаподаци
Приказ свих података о документуАпстракт
Intense direct and indirect human pressure has been imposed on grasslands throughout their range. Mostly due to the constant need for more food production or due to changes in environmental conditions, grasslands as habitats are expected to become highly endangered. The aim of this study was to estimate the grasslands' ecological response to future climate and environmental changes. The study took place in three ecologically different grassland communities in three protected natural areas of Serbia (Southeastern Europe), following the same methodology. The study sites were: 1) Pestersko polje Special Nature Reserve (SNR), 2) Deliblato sands SNR (its southern part: Labudovo okno) and 3) Zasavica SNR. Climate change was simulated for mean temperatures and precipitations using the Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model (EBU-POM) climate model, for the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario covering the 1951-2100 period and insolation and volumetric s...oil moisture content for the 1979-2100 period. Grassland vegetation was analysed at all three sites. One representative plant community per site was selected for further analysis and simulation of ecological changes. One plot was positioned inside each of the above-mentioned communities, all vascular plant species inside the plot were recorded, and soil samples were taken. Ecological Optima (EO) for moisture and temperature were calculated from modified Ellenberg's plant indicator values of recorded species. The plants' response to climate and environmental changes was simulated using the VSD+ model for the 2010-2100 period. The data obtained from the model were further analysed with Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). Overall results show that the temperature rise, along with the irregular precipitation at all three sites, will lead to a drop of the relative abundance of many native species in the period between 2040 and 2060. The low obtained Habitat Suitability Index for the future means that there will be either unfavourable environmental conditions for the development of grasslands, or the species we analysed were untypical. Cosmopolitans and xerothermic species will be more accustomed to the new conditions. Grasses will be the most resilient functional group according to our study. It may be concluded that the functional group of grasses will also play the leading role in future grasslands at the studied sites.
Кључне речи:
VSD plus model / Serbian grasslands / plant community simulation / habitat suitability index / climate changeИзвор:
Tuexenia, 2017, 37, 431-446Финансирање / пројекти:
- Истраживање климатских промена и њиховог утицаја на животну средину - праћење утицаја, адаптација и ублажавање (RS-MESTD-Integrated and Interdisciplinary Research (IIR or III)-43007)
DOI: 10.14471/2017.37.017
ISSN: 0722-494X
WoS: 000411417900023
Scopus: 2-s2.0-85030698337
Институција/група
Šumarski fakultetTY - JOUR AU - Čavlović, Dragana AU - Beloica, Jelena AU - Obratov-Petković, Dragica AU - Đurđević, Vladimir AU - Košanin, Olivera PY - 2017 UR - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/863 AB - Intense direct and indirect human pressure has been imposed on grasslands throughout their range. Mostly due to the constant need for more food production or due to changes in environmental conditions, grasslands as habitats are expected to become highly endangered. The aim of this study was to estimate the grasslands' ecological response to future climate and environmental changes. The study took place in three ecologically different grassland communities in three protected natural areas of Serbia (Southeastern Europe), following the same methodology. The study sites were: 1) Pestersko polje Special Nature Reserve (SNR), 2) Deliblato sands SNR (its southern part: Labudovo okno) and 3) Zasavica SNR. Climate change was simulated for mean temperatures and precipitations using the Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model (EBU-POM) climate model, for the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario covering the 1951-2100 period and insolation and volumetric soil moisture content for the 1979-2100 period. Grassland vegetation was analysed at all three sites. One representative plant community per site was selected for further analysis and simulation of ecological changes. One plot was positioned inside each of the above-mentioned communities, all vascular plant species inside the plot were recorded, and soil samples were taken. Ecological Optima (EO) for moisture and temperature were calculated from modified Ellenberg's plant indicator values of recorded species. The plants' response to climate and environmental changes was simulated using the VSD+ model for the 2010-2100 period. The data obtained from the model were further analysed with Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). Overall results show that the temperature rise, along with the irregular precipitation at all three sites, will lead to a drop of the relative abundance of many native species in the period between 2040 and 2060. The low obtained Habitat Suitability Index for the future means that there will be either unfavourable environmental conditions for the development of grasslands, or the species we analysed were untypical. Cosmopolitans and xerothermic species will be more accustomed to the new conditions. Grasses will be the most resilient functional group according to our study. It may be concluded that the functional group of grasses will also play the leading role in future grasslands at the studied sites. T2 - Tuexenia T1 - Simulation of long-term changes in environmental factors and grassland composition in three protected areas of Serbia EP - 446 IS - 37 SP - 431 DO - 10.14471/2017.37.017 UR - conv_1300 ER -
@article{ author = "Čavlović, Dragana and Beloica, Jelena and Obratov-Petković, Dragica and Đurđević, Vladimir and Košanin, Olivera", year = "2017", abstract = "Intense direct and indirect human pressure has been imposed on grasslands throughout their range. Mostly due to the constant need for more food production or due to changes in environmental conditions, grasslands as habitats are expected to become highly endangered. The aim of this study was to estimate the grasslands' ecological response to future climate and environmental changes. The study took place in three ecologically different grassland communities in three protected natural areas of Serbia (Southeastern Europe), following the same methodology. The study sites were: 1) Pestersko polje Special Nature Reserve (SNR), 2) Deliblato sands SNR (its southern part: Labudovo okno) and 3) Zasavica SNR. Climate change was simulated for mean temperatures and precipitations using the Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model (EBU-POM) climate model, for the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario covering the 1951-2100 period and insolation and volumetric soil moisture content for the 1979-2100 period. Grassland vegetation was analysed at all three sites. One representative plant community per site was selected for further analysis and simulation of ecological changes. One plot was positioned inside each of the above-mentioned communities, all vascular plant species inside the plot were recorded, and soil samples were taken. Ecological Optima (EO) for moisture and temperature were calculated from modified Ellenberg's plant indicator values of recorded species. The plants' response to climate and environmental changes was simulated using the VSD+ model for the 2010-2100 period. The data obtained from the model were further analysed with Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). Overall results show that the temperature rise, along with the irregular precipitation at all three sites, will lead to a drop of the relative abundance of many native species in the period between 2040 and 2060. The low obtained Habitat Suitability Index for the future means that there will be either unfavourable environmental conditions for the development of grasslands, or the species we analysed were untypical. Cosmopolitans and xerothermic species will be more accustomed to the new conditions. Grasses will be the most resilient functional group according to our study. It may be concluded that the functional group of grasses will also play the leading role in future grasslands at the studied sites.", journal = "Tuexenia", title = "Simulation of long-term changes in environmental factors and grassland composition in three protected areas of Serbia", pages = "446-431", number = "37", doi = "10.14471/2017.37.017", url = "conv_1300" }
Čavlović, D., Beloica, J., Obratov-Petković, D., Đurđević, V.,& Košanin, O.. (2017). Simulation of long-term changes in environmental factors and grassland composition in three protected areas of Serbia. in Tuexenia(37), 431-446. https://doi.org/10.14471/2017.37.017 conv_1300
Čavlović D, Beloica J, Obratov-Petković D, Đurđević V, Košanin O. Simulation of long-term changes in environmental factors and grassland composition in three protected areas of Serbia. in Tuexenia. 2017;(37):431-446. doi:10.14471/2017.37.017 conv_1300 .
Čavlović, Dragana, Beloica, Jelena, Obratov-Petković, Dragica, Đurđević, Vladimir, Košanin, Olivera, "Simulation of long-term changes in environmental factors and grassland composition in three protected areas of Serbia" in Tuexenia, no. 37 (2017):431-446, https://doi.org/10.14471/2017.37.017 ., conv_1300 .