Uticaj klimatskih promena na biljke šumskih zajednica Specijalnog rezervata prirode Zasavica

Abstract

Vlažna staništa se ubrajaju među najosetljivija na planeti. U njihovom sklopu nalaze se i veoma kompleksni šumski ekosistemi. Istraživanja i analize šumske vegetacije dovode do zaključka o ekološkim uslovima koji vladaju na vlažnim staništima. Cilj rada je da se detaljno prouči i analizira uticaj klimatskih promena na šumsku vegetaciju na području najstrože zaštite Specijalnog rezervata prirode Zasavica. Istraživanja na terenu su izvršena metodom ciriško-monpelješke škole Braun-Blanquet-a. Da bi se došlo do indikatorskih svojstava biljaka iz šumskih zajednica na vlažnim staništima određeni su florno-geografski elementi i životne forme. Povezani regionalni klimatski model EBU-POM se koristi za klimatske simulacije. Tačni klimatski parametri za ovaj lokalitet su dobijeni metodom 'downscaling'-a. Referentni klimatski parametri su uzeti za period 1961-1990, a simulacija klimatskih promena je urađena za period 2071-2100 (A1B i A2 scenario). Uzete su u obzir indikatorske vrednosti šumskih biljaka za vlažnost i toplotu, dakle ekološki optimumi su određeni na skali vlažnosti i toplote. Regionalni klimatski model pokazuje da će u budućnosti postojati dug i intenzivan sušni period, praćen visokim temperaturama od aprila do oktobra. Kontinentalna zima će imati vlažniji karakter sa povećanim padavinama, naročito u februaru. Analizom rezultata došlo se do zaključka da su vlažna staništa prelaznog karaktera, veoma varijabilna, a samim tim i osetljiva na promene koje mogu da dovedu do iščezavanja nekih biljnih vrsta.

Wetlands are among the most vulnerable habitats on the planet. Very complex forest ecosystems are also parts of wetlands. Research and analysis of forest vegetation elements, leads to a conclusion about ecological conditions of wetlands. The aim of the paper is detail forest vegetation study, and analyzing the impact of climate changes on wetland forest vegetations of the strict protection area at the SNR Zasavica Ramsar site. Field research was carried out by using Braun-Blanquet's Zurich-Montpelier school method. Phytogeographical elements and life forms of plants were determined subsequently, in order to get indicator values of wetland plants. Coupled Regional Climate Model (CRCM), EBU-POM was used for the climate simulations. Exact climatic variables for the site were determined by downscaling method. Climatic variables reference values were taken for the period of 1961-1990, and climate change simulations for the period 2071-2100 (A1B and A2). Indicator values of forest plants taken into consideration were humidity and temperature; therefore, ecological optimums were determined in scales of humidity and temperature. Regional Climate Model shows that there will be a long and intensive dry period in the future, with high temperatures from April till October. Continental winter will be more humid, with higher precipitation, especially in February. Based on the analysis of results it was concluded that wetlands are transitional habitats, also very variable and therefore vulnerable to changes. The changes may lead to the extinction of some plant species.