Rizik od bujičnih poplava sa posebnim osvrtom na bujične poplave u Braničevskom okrugu u periodu 2015-2018. godine

Abstract

Veliki broj bujičnih poplava u Republici Srbiji, sa ljudskim žrtvama i velikom materijalnom štetom, ukazuje da je ovo problem koji se mora planski rešavati. Rizik od ove vrste vanrednih događaja je veliki, uslovljen pre svega klimatskim i fizičko-geografskim karakteristikama našeg područja, slabom preventivnom zaštitom od bujičnih poplava, negativnim uticajem ljudskih aktivnosti, nedostatkom planova za sprečavanje neželjenih događaja, neodgovarajućom metodologijom procene ugroženosti, a ponekad i lošom organizacionom strukturom sistema odbrane, može dovesti do katastrofalnih posledica. Takođe, činjenica je da je sistem ranog upozoravanja od nastanka bujičnih nepogoda nedovoljno funkcionalan. U ovom radu sagledane su tri velike bujične poplave u Braničevskom okrugu, u periodu od tri godine. Sve češća pojava intenzivnih kišnih epizoda, sa velikom količinom padavina, nalaže izradu odgovarajućeg modela za ranu najavu bujičnih poplava.

A large number of torrential floods in the Republic of Serbia, with increasingly destructive effects and extensive material damage, are a problem that must be addressed systematically. The risk of this emergency situation is high, primarily due to the climate and geographical characteristics of our areas, poor preventive protection against torrential floods, lack of plans for the prevention of adverse events, poor risk assessment methodology, and sometimes poor organisational structure, all of which can lead to catastrophic consequences. Also, an inadequate and dysfunctional early warning system against the occurrence of torrential disasters makes the system of torrential flood protection in the Republic of Serbia is inadequate. The main problem is that no torrents are the same and there is a different scenario for each of them. This paper analyses three major torrential floods in the Braničevo district over a period of three years. The increasing amount of atmospheric precipitation over a short period of time warns us that there will be more and more of these extraordinary events and it is up to the state authorities to find a model of how to cope with these phenomena as successfully as possible.