Cost management as a part of integrated management of torrential watershed in Serbia: a case study of Topciderska River

Abstract

This paper aimed to estimate the contingency reserves for the project related to the integrated management of Topciderska river in Serbia watershed, in the context of cost management, as a part of the risk analysis. The Monte Carlo simulation was used to determine the reserves. After the simulation, the distribution of probability for technical and biological works and distribution of probability of total costs was obtained. Cost contingency reserves are determined based on the difference between the costs specified by the project budget and the simulated total costs with 90% probability of occurrence. The cost reserve for the execution of the project amounted 19.45% of the total costs of estimated bill of quantities.