Trend šteta u odabranim šumskim područjima i prognoza za naredni period

Abstract

Do sada sprovedenim istraživanjima u Srbiji je utvrđeno uvećanje šteta u šumama od prirodnih nepogoda, kao i uvećanje učešća u ukupnim šumskim štetama uz njihovu teritorijalnu neujednačenost. Cilj istraživanja je utvrđivanje trenda kretanja broja i površine šteta, površine šteta po jednom štetnom događaju, kao i prognoze kretanja šteta nastalih usled štetnog dejstva vode, vetra i požara u odabranim šumskim područjima u Srbiji. U istraživanju je korišćena metoda modelovanja, a primenjene su i metoda analize trenda, regresiona i korelaciona analiza, kao i posebne metode. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da postoje razlike u trendovima kretanja šteta pojedinačnih štetnih faktora, uz uglavnom rastući trend kretanja šteta nastalih usled dejstva vode i vetra opadajući trend kretanja šteta nastalih usled dejstva požara, ali i porast obima šteta nastalih usled dejstva sva tri štetna faktora.

The research carried out in Serbia so far revealed an increase in forest damages from natural hazards, as well as increased share in total forest damages with their territorial inequality. This research aims to determine the trend in the number and area of damages, the area of damages per one harmful event, and the prognosis of damages caused by the harmful effects of water, wind and fire in selected forest regions of Serbia. A modelling method was used as a basic scientific method, with an application of trend regression and correlation analysis and other specific methods.The results of the research indicate that there are differences in the trends per harmful factor. An increasing trend is visible with the damages caused by the effects of water and wind but also in the extent of damages caused by all three detrimental factors. A decreasing trend is noticeable only for the damages caused by fire.