Kretanje obima šteta od prirodnih nepogoda u šumama Srbije i uticaj temperature i padavina

Abstract

U pogledu vidljivih posledica klimatskih promena, u Srbiji je, kao i u drugim državama, prisutno povećanje srednje godišnje temperature, smanjenje količine padavina, pojava poplava, suša, šumskih požara i ledoloma. Cilj istraživanja je utvrđivanje zakonitosti u kretanju obima šteta od prirodnih nepogoda u šumama Srbije, zatim učešća u ukupnim šumskim štetama i uticaja temperature i padavina na obim šteta od prirodnih nepogoda u šumama u posmatranom periodu. Kao osnovna naučna metoda, korišćena je metoda modelovanja, a primenjene su i metoda analize trenda, regresiona i korelaciona analiza, klasične metode zaključivanja (apstrakcija i konkretizacija, analiza i sinteza, indukcija i dedukcija, itd.), kao i druge metode i tehnike neophodne za dobijanje svih neophodnih elemenata za zaključivanje (proseci, apsolutni rast, stope rasta, itd.). Rezultati istraživanja, bez obzira na izostanak signifikantnosti kod svih modela, ukazuju da su štete od prirodnih nepogoda u šumama Srbije u porastu, da se uvećava njihovo učešće u ukupnim šumskim štetama i da se ono može vezati za niže temperature i veću količinu padavina (snegolomi, snegoizvale, ledolomi, ledoizvale, poplave, itd.).

In terms of the visible effects of climate change, in Serbia as well as in other countries is present an increase of average annual temperature, reduced amount of precipitation, the occurrence of floods, droughts, forest fires and ice breakage. The aim of the research is to determine the pattern of the trends in the extent of damages from natural hazards in the forests in Serbia, their share in the total forest damage and the impact of temperature and precipitation on the extent of damage from natural hazards in the forests during the researched period. A modelling method was used as a basic scientific method, with an application of trend, regression and correlation analysis, methods of reasoning (abstraction and concretization, analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, etc.), along with other methods and techniques necessary for obtaining all needed elements (processes, absolute growth, growth rate, etc.). Regardless of the lack of significance in all models, the research results indicate that the damages from natural hazards in the forests in Serbia are expanding, with increased share in total forest damages, which might be related to significantly lower temperatures and higher rainfall (snow-breaks, snow uprooting, ice-breaks, ice uprooting, floods, etc.).