Utvrđivanje obima sakupljanja vrganja i lisičarke u Srbiji u odnosu na različite scenarije klimatskih promena

Abstract

U radu je ispitivan uticaj pojedinih klimatskih elemenata na obim sakupljenih količina dve komercijalno najznačajnije vrste gljiva u Srbiji (vrganj i lisičarka). Osnovni cilj istraživanja je da se utvrdi obim sakupljenih količina vrganja i lisičarki, koje se mogu očekivati u različitim scenarijima klimatskih promena (A1Bmin, A1Bmax, A2min i A2max), zasnovanih na prognozama promena temperature i padavina. U istraživanju su korišćene opšte (dijalektička) i posebne (metoda modelovanja), kao i klasične naučne metode zaključivanja. Obračun prosečne godišnje eksponencijalne stope rasta (IS) vršen je formiranjem eksponencijalnih regresionih modela trenda obima sakupljenih količina vrganja i lisičarke. Istraživanjem je utvrđeno da se, prema podacima vezanim za periode do 2014. godine, i kod vrganja i kod lisičarke, može očekivati pad u kretanju IS, a time i obim sakupljanja. Sa druge strane, prema podacima vezanim za periode do 2040. godine, u oba slučaja se može očekivati izvesna kolebljivost (padovi i skokovi) u kretanju IS. Prema podacima vezanim za periode posle 2041. god. (posebno za period do 2100. god.), u oba slučaja, mogu se očekivati padovi u obimu sakupljanja kao posledica promena T i P, izazvanih pretpostavljenim klimatskim promenama.

This study examines the influence of some climate elements on the collected quantities of two commercially most significant types of mushrooms in Serbia (porcini and chanterelle). The main objective of the research is to determine the extent of the collected quantity of porcini and chanterelle, which can be expected in different scenarios of climate change (A1Bmin, A1Bmax, A2min i A2max), based on forecasts of temperature and rainfall changes. The general (dialectical) and specific (modelling methods) are used in the research, as well as the classical scientific methods of reasoning. The calculation of the average annual exponential growth rate (IS) was carried out by forming exponential regression models of the trend of porcini and chanterelle collected quantities. In the research it was found that, according to the data related to the period up to 2014, one can expect a decrease in the movement of both porcini and chanterelle IS, and thus a decrease in the collected quantities. On the other hand, according to the data related to the period up to 2040, in both cases one can expect some fluctuation (increase and decrease) in the movement of IS. According to the data related to periods after 2041 (especially for the period until 2100), in both cases, one can expect a decrease in the collected quantities, as a result of changes in T and P, caused by the assumed climate change.