Uticaj temperature i padavina na broj posetilaca u Nacionalnom parku 'Tara'

Abstract

U radu se pošlo od pretpostavke da klimatske promene, pored toga što negativno utiču na šumske ekosisteme, mogu da utiču i na posećenost lokacija u nacionalnim parkovima koji su namenjeni za turizam i rekreaciju. U cilju testiranja ovakve pretpostavke prikupljeni su podaci o broju i učestalosti poseta u nacionalnom parku (NP) 'Tara'. Utvrđena je srednja dnevna temperatura i ukupna količina padavina u danima kada su zabeležene posete. Ovi podaci analizirani su eksponencijalnim regresionim modelima. Utvrđen je pozitivan i statistički značajan uticaj temperature na broj poseta u NP 'Tara', u određenim kategorijama. Padavine negativno utiču na posećenost NP. Ove analize još su upoređene sa scenarijima klimatskih promena u Srbiji (A1B i A2) i, na osnovu toga, izvedeni su zaključci. Zaključeno je da postoji uticaj temperature i padavina na broj posetilaca NP 'Tara', a da se mogu očekivati promene u posetama usled uticaja klimatskih promena na temperaturu, padavine i šumske ekosisteme.

The paper is based on the assumption that climate changes, in addition to negatively affecting forest ecosystems, can have an impact on visiting sites in national parks intended for tourism and recreation. In order to test this assumption, data on the number and frequency of visits to the National Park 'Tara' were collected. In the research was determined a mean daily temperature and total amount of rainfalls in the days when the visit was recorded. These data were analyzed using exponential regression models. There is a positive and statistically significant influence of temperature on the number of visits to the National Park 'Tara' in certain categories. On the other hand, rainfalls have a negative influence on visits to the National Park 'Tara'. These analyses are compared with scenarios of climate changes in Serbia (A1B and A2). It was concluded that there is the influence of temperature and precipitation on the number of visitors to the National Park 'Tara', and that one can expect changes in visits due to the impact of climate changes on temperature, rainfalls and forest ecosystems.