Procena isplativosti proizvodnje drveta u zasadima topole u Ravnom Sremu na bazi metode 'korist-trošak'

Abstract

U radu je prikazana analiza komercijalne isplativosti gajenja topola prema jednom od indikatora za procenu projekata u poljoprivredi i šumarstvu - 'korist-trošak' (r). Analiza je urađena za zasade topole klona I-214 na području Ravnog Srema, pri različitim ophodnjama i na različitim tipovima zemljišta. Cilj istraživanja je da se na osnovu analize troškova i prihoda u različitim periodima starosti zasada, korišćenjem metode 'korist-trošak', proveri opravdanost uloženih finansijskih sredstava u proizvodnju drveta u zasadima topole. Istraživanjem je utvrđeno da je za svih 13 proučavanih odeljenja prosečan odnos 'korist-trošak' 0,36. To znači da su troškovi pri diskontnoj stopi od 12% oko 2,8 puta veći od prihoda. U skladu sa tim može se tvrditi da je ekonomski neopravdano ulagati u projektovane sastojine, ali samo u slučaju kada je društvena cena kapitala 12%. Iz analize osetljivosti za metodu korist-trošak može se zaključiti da je odnos korist trošak za p=8-12% u posmatranom rasponu promena troškova i prihoda manji od 1, dok za p=4-6% postoje slučajevi kad pri određenom stepenu smanjenja troškova, odnosno povećanja prihoda ovaj odnos ima vrednost veću od 1. Primećeno je da se promena r u zavisnosti od promena troškova, odvija po eksponencijalnoj funkciji, a promena r u zavisnosti od promena prihoda po linearnoj funkciji. Takođe, utvrđeno je da se pri nižim diskontnim stopama vrednosti r približavaju 1, pa je za 8% r=0,71, za 6% r=0,94. Vrednost pri diskontnoj stopi od 4% pokazuje da je projekat profitabilan i da se na 1 uložen evro dobija 1,22 €. Ova činjenica je naročito bitna kada dolazi do rangiranja projekata u topolarstvu. Stoga se ova metoda upotrebljava za ocenjivanje društvenih koristi, tj. za ekonomske analize. Skoro nikada se ne primenjuje za analiziranje privatnih investicija.

Cost-effectiveness of polar cultivation was analyzed based on one of the indicators for the assessment of agriculture and forestry projects - cost-benefit (r). Poplar plantations of the clone I-214 of different rotations and on different soil types were analyzed in the area of Ravni Srem. The aim of the study was to evaluate the justification of the invested financial means in wood production in poplar plantations, based on the analysis of costs and receipts at different plantation ages, using the cost-benefit method. It was found that in all 13 analyzed compartments, the average cost-benefit ratio was 0.36. This means that the costs at the discount rate of 12% are about 2.8 times higher than the receipts. Accordingly, it can be asserted that it is economically unjustified to invest in the projected stands, but only in the case when the value of social capital accounts for 12%. Based on the analysis of sensitivity of the cost-benefit method, it was concluded that cost benefit ratio for p=8-12% was below 1 within the study range of costs and receipts changes, while for p=4-6% this ratio was above 1 in some cases of decrease in costs, i.e. increase in receipts. It was noted that the change in r depending on the change in costs, developed by the exponential function, and the change in r depending on the change in receipts developed by the linear function. Also, it was concluded that at the lower discount rates, the values of r moved towards 1, so for 8% r=0.71, and for 6% r=0.94. The value at the discount rate of 4% indicates that the project is cost-effective and that the invested € 1 makes € 1.22. This fact is especially important when poplar cultivation projects are ranked. For this reason, this method is used for the evaluation of social benefits, i.e. for economic analyses. It is almost never applied in the analysis of private investments.