TY  - JOUR
AU  - Ciceu, Albert
AU  - Balacenoiu, Flavius
AU  - de Groot, Maarten
AU  - Chakraborty, Debojyoti
AU  - Avtzis, Dimitrios
AU  - Barta, Marek
AU  - Blaser, Simon
AU  - Bracalini, Matteo
AU  - Castagneyrol, Bastien
AU  - Chernova, Ulyana A.
AU  - Cotaj, Ejup
AU  - Csoka, Gyorgy
AU  - Dautbasić, Mirza
AU  - Glavendekić, Milka
AU  - Gninenko, Yuri I.
AU  - Hoch, Gernot
AU  - Hradil, Karel
AU  - Husemann, Martin
AU  - Meshkova, Valentyna
AU  - Mujezinović, Osman
AU  - Mutun, Serap
AU  - Panzavolta, Tiziana
AU  - Paulin, Marton
AU  - Riba-Flinch, Josep M.
AU  - Simov, Nikolay
AU  - Sotirovski, Kiril
AU  - Vasilciuc, Serghei
AU  - Zubrik, Milan
AU  - Schueler, Silvio
PY  - 2024
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1516
AB  - In recent years, the oak lace bug, Corythucha arcuata, , has emerged as a significant threat to European oak forests. This species, native to North America, has in the last two decades rapidly extended its range in Europe, raising concerns about its potential impact on the continent's invaluable oak populations. To address this growing concern, we conducted an extensive study to assess the distribution, colonization patterns, and potential ecological niche of the oak lace bug in Europe. We gathered 1792 unique presence coordinates from 21 Eurasian countries, utilizing diverse sources such as research observations, citizen science initiatives, GBIF database, and social media reports. To delineate the realized niche and future distribution, we employed an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) framework. Two future greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were considered across three-time intervals (2021-2040, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) to project and evaluate the species' potential distribution in the future. Our analysis revealed that significant hotspots rich in host species occurrence for this invasive insect remain uninvaded so far, even within its suitable habitat. Furthermore, the native ranges of Turkey oak ( Quercus cerris L.) and Hungarian oak ( Quercus frainetto L.) species offer entirely suitable environments for the oak lace bug. In contrast, the pedunculate oak and sessile oak distribution ranges currently show only 40 % and 50 % suitability for colonization, respectively. However, our predictive models indicate a significant transformation in the habitat suitability of the oak lace bug, with suitability for these two oak species increasing by up to 90 %. This shift underlines an evolving landscape where the oak lace bug may exploit more of its available habitats than initially expected. It emphasises the pressing need for proactive measures to manage and stop its expanding presence, which may lead to a harmful impact on the oak population across the European landscape.
T2  - Science of the Total Environment
T1  - The ongoing range expansion of the invasive oak lace bug across Europe: current occurrence and potential distribution under climate change
VL  - 949
DO  - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174950
UR  - conv_1812
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Ciceu, Albert and Balacenoiu, Flavius and de Groot, Maarten and Chakraborty, Debojyoti and Avtzis, Dimitrios and Barta, Marek and Blaser, Simon and Bracalini, Matteo and Castagneyrol, Bastien and Chernova, Ulyana A. and Cotaj, Ejup and Csoka, Gyorgy and Dautbasić, Mirza and Glavendekić, Milka and Gninenko, Yuri I. and Hoch, Gernot and Hradil, Karel and Husemann, Martin and Meshkova, Valentyna and Mujezinović, Osman and Mutun, Serap and Panzavolta, Tiziana and Paulin, Marton and Riba-Flinch, Josep M. and Simov, Nikolay and Sotirovski, Kiril and Vasilciuc, Serghei and Zubrik, Milan and Schueler, Silvio",
year = "2024",
abstract = "In recent years, the oak lace bug, Corythucha arcuata, , has emerged as a significant threat to European oak forests. This species, native to North America, has in the last two decades rapidly extended its range in Europe, raising concerns about its potential impact on the continent's invaluable oak populations. To address this growing concern, we conducted an extensive study to assess the distribution, colonization patterns, and potential ecological niche of the oak lace bug in Europe. We gathered 1792 unique presence coordinates from 21 Eurasian countries, utilizing diverse sources such as research observations, citizen science initiatives, GBIF database, and social media reports. To delineate the realized niche and future distribution, we employed an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) framework. Two future greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were considered across three-time intervals (2021-2040, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) to project and evaluate the species' potential distribution in the future. Our analysis revealed that significant hotspots rich in host species occurrence for this invasive insect remain uninvaded so far, even within its suitable habitat. Furthermore, the native ranges of Turkey oak ( Quercus cerris L.) and Hungarian oak ( Quercus frainetto L.) species offer entirely suitable environments for the oak lace bug. In contrast, the pedunculate oak and sessile oak distribution ranges currently show only 40 % and 50 % suitability for colonization, respectively. However, our predictive models indicate a significant transformation in the habitat suitability of the oak lace bug, with suitability for these two oak species increasing by up to 90 %. This shift underlines an evolving landscape where the oak lace bug may exploit more of its available habitats than initially expected. It emphasises the pressing need for proactive measures to manage and stop its expanding presence, which may lead to a harmful impact on the oak population across the European landscape.",
journal = "Science of the Total Environment",
title = "The ongoing range expansion of the invasive oak lace bug across Europe: current occurrence and potential distribution under climate change",
volume = "949",
doi = "10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174950",
url = "conv_1812"
}

Ciceu, A., Balacenoiu, F., de Groot, M., Chakraborty, D., Avtzis, D., Barta, M., Blaser, S., Bracalini, M., Castagneyrol, B., Chernova, U. A., Cotaj, E., Csoka, G., Dautbasić, M., Glavendekić, M., Gninenko, Y. I., Hoch, G., Hradil, K., Husemann, M., Meshkova, V., Mujezinović, O., Mutun, S., Panzavolta, T., Paulin, M., Riba-Flinch, J. M., Simov, N., Sotirovski, K., Vasilciuc, S., Zubrik, M.,& Schueler, S.. (2024). The ongoing range expansion of the invasive oak lace bug across Europe: current occurrence and potential distribution under climate change. in Science of the Total Environment, 949.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174950
conv_1812

Ciceu A, Balacenoiu F, de Groot M, Chakraborty D, Avtzis D, Barta M, Blaser S, Bracalini M, Castagneyrol B, Chernova UA, Cotaj E, Csoka G, Dautbasić M, Glavendekić M, Gninenko YI, Hoch G, Hradil K, Husemann M, Meshkova V, Mujezinović O, Mutun S, Panzavolta T, Paulin M, Riba-Flinch JM, Simov N, Sotirovski K, Vasilciuc S, Zubrik M, Schueler S. The ongoing range expansion of the invasive oak lace bug across Europe: current occurrence and potential distribution under climate change. in Science of the Total Environment. 2024;949.
doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174950
conv_1812 .

Ciceu, Albert, Balacenoiu, Flavius, de Groot, Maarten, Chakraborty, Debojyoti, Avtzis, Dimitrios, Barta, Marek, Blaser, Simon, Bracalini, Matteo, Castagneyrol, Bastien, Chernova, Ulyana A., Cotaj, Ejup, Csoka, Gyorgy, Dautbasić, Mirza, Glavendekić, Milka, Gninenko, Yuri I., Hoch, Gernot, Hradil, Karel, Husemann, Martin, Meshkova, Valentyna, Mujezinović, Osman, Mutun, Serap, Panzavolta, Tiziana, Paulin, Marton, Riba-Flinch, Josep M., Simov, Nikolay, Sotirovski, Kiril, Vasilciuc, Serghei, Zubrik, Milan, Schueler, Silvio, "The ongoing range expansion of the invasive oak lace bug across Europe: current occurrence and potential distribution under climate change" in Science of the Total Environment, 949 (2024),
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174950 .,
conv_1812 .