TY  - JOUR
AU  - Blagojević, Borislava
AU  - Mihailović, Vladislava
AU  - Bogojević, Aleksandar
AU  - Plavsić, Jasna
PY  - 2023
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1397
AB  - Changes in the hydrological regime are widely investigated using a variety of approaches. In this study, we assess changes in annual and seasonal flow characteristics based on a probabilistic representation of the seasonal runoff regime at the daily time scale. The probabilistic seasonal runoff pattern is constructed by determining quantiles from marginal distributions of daily flows for each day within the year. By applying Fourier transformation on the statistics of the daily flow partial series, we obtain smooth periodical functions of distribution parameters over the year and consequently of the quantiles. The main findings are based on the comparison of the dry, average, and wet hydrologic condition zones as defined by the daily flow quantiles of selected probabilities. This analysis was conducted for ten catchments in Serbia by considering changes between two 30-year nonoverlapping periods, 1961-1990 and 1991-2020. It was found that the relative change in runoff volume is the most pronounced in the extreme dry condition zone in the winter season (-33% to 34%). The annual time shift is the largest in the dry and average condition zones, ranging from -11 to 12 days. The applied methodology is not only applicable to the detection of hydrologic change, but could also be used in operational hydrology and extreme flow studies via drought indices such as the Standardized Streamflow Index.
T2  - Water
T1  - Detecting Annual and Seasonal Hydrological Change Using Marginal Distributions of Daily Flows
IS  - 16
VL  - 15
DO  - 10.3390/w15162919
UR  - conv_1724
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Blagojević, Borislava and Mihailović, Vladislava and Bogojević, Aleksandar and Plavsić, Jasna",
year = "2023",
abstract = "Changes in the hydrological regime are widely investigated using a variety of approaches. In this study, we assess changes in annual and seasonal flow characteristics based on a probabilistic representation of the seasonal runoff regime at the daily time scale. The probabilistic seasonal runoff pattern is constructed by determining quantiles from marginal distributions of daily flows for each day within the year. By applying Fourier transformation on the statistics of the daily flow partial series, we obtain smooth periodical functions of distribution parameters over the year and consequently of the quantiles. The main findings are based on the comparison of the dry, average, and wet hydrologic condition zones as defined by the daily flow quantiles of selected probabilities. This analysis was conducted for ten catchments in Serbia by considering changes between two 30-year nonoverlapping periods, 1961-1990 and 1991-2020. It was found that the relative change in runoff volume is the most pronounced in the extreme dry condition zone in the winter season (-33% to 34%). The annual time shift is the largest in the dry and average condition zones, ranging from -11 to 12 days. The applied methodology is not only applicable to the detection of hydrologic change, but could also be used in operational hydrology and extreme flow studies via drought indices such as the Standardized Streamflow Index.",
journal = "Water",
title = "Detecting Annual and Seasonal Hydrological Change Using Marginal Distributions of Daily Flows",
number = "16",
volume = "15",
doi = "10.3390/w15162919",
url = "conv_1724"
}

Blagojević, B., Mihailović, V., Bogojević, A.,& Plavsić, J.. (2023). Detecting Annual and Seasonal Hydrological Change Using Marginal Distributions of Daily Flows. in Water, 15(16).
https://doi.org/10.3390/w15162919
conv_1724

Blagojević B, Mihailović V, Bogojević A, Plavsić J. Detecting Annual and Seasonal Hydrological Change Using Marginal Distributions of Daily Flows. in Water. 2023;15(16).
doi:10.3390/w15162919
conv_1724 .

Blagojević, Borislava, Mihailović, Vladislava, Bogojević, Aleksandar, Plavsić, Jasna, "Detecting Annual and Seasonal Hydrological Change Using Marginal Distributions of Daily Flows" in Water, 15, no. 16 (2023),
https://doi.org/10.3390/w15162919 .,
conv_1724 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Erić, Ranka
AU  - Todorović, Andrijana
AU  - Plavšić, Jasna
AU  - Đukić, Vesna
PY  - 2019
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1070
AB  - Hidrološki modeli su veoma važni za efikasno upravljanje vodnim resursima na nivou sliva. U ovom radu je prikazana upotreba softverskog paketa HEC-HMS-a za modeliranje oticaja sa sliva Lukovske reke. Za potrebe modeliranja korišćeni su podaci tokom pet poplavnih talasa osmotrenih na hidrološkoj stanici Merćez na Lukovskoj reci. Razmatrani poplavni talasi su iz dva različita vremenska perioda i iz dve sezone, t.j. sa različitim dominantnim mehanizmima generisanja oticaja. Stoga su poplavni talasi podeljeni u grupe "sadašnjost" i "prošlost", i u grupe "proleće" i "leto". Optimalne vrednosti parametara za svaku grupu talasa su dobijeni osrednjavanjem optimalnih parametara za pojedinačne talase unutar grupe. Da bi se procenila prenosivost modela, t.j. njegova primenjivost za simulacije poplavnih talasa koji nisu razmatrani u kalibraciji modela, izvršena je unakrsna validacija. Rezultati pokazuju da se parametri modela razlikuju za pojedinačne talase i grupe talasa, i da prenos parametara generalno dovodi do značajnih grešaka u pikovima i zapreminama hidrograma, sa izuzetkom simulacije letnjih događaja sa parametrima iz grupe "proleće". Na osnovu ovih rezultata date su preporuke za modeliranje oticaja od pojedinačnih epizoda.
AB  - Hydrologic models are important for effective water resources management at a basin level. This paper describes an application of the HEC-HMS hydrologic model for simulations of flood hydrographs in the Lukovska River basin. Five flood events observed at the Merćez stream gauge were available for modelling purposes. These events are from two distinct periods and two seasons with different prevailing runoff generation mechanisms. Hence the events are assigned to either "present" or "past", and "spring" or "summer" group. The optimal parameter sets of each group are obtained by averaging the optimal parameters for individual events within the group. To assess model transferability, its applicability for simulation of flood events which are not considered in the model calibration, a cross-validation is performed. The results indicate that model parameters vary across the events, and that parameter transfer generally leads to considerable errors in hydrograph peaks and volumes, with the exception of simulation of summer events with "spring" parameters. Based on these results, recommendations for event-based modeling are given.
PB  - Univerzitet u Beogradu - Šumarski fakultet, Beograd
T2  - Glasnik Šumarskog fakulteta
T1  - Simulacije procesa padavine-oticaj na slivu Lukovske reke korišćenjem HEC-HMS modela
T1  - Rainfall-runoff simulations in the Lukovska River basin with the HEC-HMS model
EP  - 60
IS  - 119
SP  - 33
DO  - 10.2298/GSF1919033E
UR  - conv_477
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Erić, Ranka and Todorović, Andrijana and Plavšić, Jasna and Đukić, Vesna",
year = "2019",
abstract = "Hidrološki modeli su veoma važni za efikasno upravljanje vodnim resursima na nivou sliva. U ovom radu je prikazana upotreba softverskog paketa HEC-HMS-a za modeliranje oticaja sa sliva Lukovske reke. Za potrebe modeliranja korišćeni su podaci tokom pet poplavnih talasa osmotrenih na hidrološkoj stanici Merćez na Lukovskoj reci. Razmatrani poplavni talasi su iz dva različita vremenska perioda i iz dve sezone, t.j. sa različitim dominantnim mehanizmima generisanja oticaja. Stoga su poplavni talasi podeljeni u grupe "sadašnjost" i "prošlost", i u grupe "proleće" i "leto". Optimalne vrednosti parametara za svaku grupu talasa su dobijeni osrednjavanjem optimalnih parametara za pojedinačne talase unutar grupe. Da bi se procenila prenosivost modela, t.j. njegova primenjivost za simulacije poplavnih talasa koji nisu razmatrani u kalibraciji modela, izvršena je unakrsna validacija. Rezultati pokazuju da se parametri modela razlikuju za pojedinačne talase i grupe talasa, i da prenos parametara generalno dovodi do značajnih grešaka u pikovima i zapreminama hidrograma, sa izuzetkom simulacije letnjih događaja sa parametrima iz grupe "proleće". Na osnovu ovih rezultata date su preporuke za modeliranje oticaja od pojedinačnih epizoda., Hydrologic models are important for effective water resources management at a basin level. This paper describes an application of the HEC-HMS hydrologic model for simulations of flood hydrographs in the Lukovska River basin. Five flood events observed at the Merćez stream gauge were available for modelling purposes. These events are from two distinct periods and two seasons with different prevailing runoff generation mechanisms. Hence the events are assigned to either "present" or "past", and "spring" or "summer" group. The optimal parameter sets of each group are obtained by averaging the optimal parameters for individual events within the group. To assess model transferability, its applicability for simulation of flood events which are not considered in the model calibration, a cross-validation is performed. The results indicate that model parameters vary across the events, and that parameter transfer generally leads to considerable errors in hydrograph peaks and volumes, with the exception of simulation of summer events with "spring" parameters. Based on these results, recommendations for event-based modeling are given.",
publisher = "Univerzitet u Beogradu - Šumarski fakultet, Beograd",
journal = "Glasnik Šumarskog fakulteta",
title = "Simulacije procesa padavine-oticaj na slivu Lukovske reke korišćenjem HEC-HMS modela, Rainfall-runoff simulations in the Lukovska River basin with the HEC-HMS model",
pages = "60-33",
number = "119",
doi = "10.2298/GSF1919033E",
url = "conv_477"
}

Erić, R., Todorović, A., Plavšić, J.,& Đukić, V.. (2019). Simulacije procesa padavine-oticaj na slivu Lukovske reke korišćenjem HEC-HMS modela. in Glasnik Šumarskog fakulteta
Univerzitet u Beogradu - Šumarski fakultet, Beograd.(119), 33-60.
https://doi.org/10.2298/GSF1919033E
conv_477

Erić R, Todorović A, Plavšić J, Đukić V. Simulacije procesa padavine-oticaj na slivu Lukovske reke korišćenjem HEC-HMS modela. in Glasnik Šumarskog fakulteta. 2019;(119):33-60.
doi:10.2298/GSF1919033E
conv_477 .

Erić, Ranka, Todorović, Andrijana, Plavšić, Jasna, Đukić, Vesna, "Simulacije procesa padavine-oticaj na slivu Lukovske reke korišćenjem HEC-HMS modela" in Glasnik Šumarskog fakulteta, no. 119 (2019):33-60,
https://doi.org/10.2298/GSF1919033E .,
conv_477 .