TY  - JOUR
AU  - Bosela, Michal
AU  - Rubio-Cuadrado, Alvaro
AU  - Marcis, Peter
AU  - Merganicova, Katarina
AU  - Fleischer, Peter, Jr.
AU  - Forrester, David I.
AU  - Uhl, Enno
AU  - Avdagić, Admir
AU  - Bellan, Michal
AU  - Bielak, Kamil
AU  - Bravo, Felipe
AU  - Coll, Lluis
AU  - Cseke, Klara
AU  - del Rio, Miren
AU  - Dinca, Lucian
AU  - Dobor, Laura
AU  - Drozdowski, Stanislaw
AU  - Giammarchi, Francesco
AU  - Gomoryova, Erika
AU  - Ibrahimspahić, Aida
AU  - Kasanin-Grubin, Milica
AU  - Klopcić, Matija
AU  - Kurylyak, Viktor
AU  - Montes, Fernando
AU  - Pach, Maciej
AU  - Ruiz-Peinado, Ricardo
AU  - Skrzyszewski, Jerzy
AU  - Stajić, Branko
AU  - Stojanović, Dejan
AU  - Svoboda, Miroslav
AU  - Tonon, Giustino
AU  - Versace, Soraya
AU  - Mitrović, Suzana
AU  - Zlatanov, Tzvetan
AU  - Pretzsch, Hans
AU  - Tognetti, Roberto
PY  - 2023
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1417
AB  - Process-based models and empirical modelling techniques are frequently used to (i) explore the sensitivity of tree growth to environmental variables, and (ii) predict the future growth of trees and forest stands under climate change scenarios. However, modelling approaches substantially influence predictions of the sensitivity of trees to environmen-tal factors. Here, we used tree-ring width (TRW) data from 1630 beech trees from a network of 70 plots established across European mountains to build empirical predictive growth models using various modelling approaches. In addi-tion, we used 3-PG and Biome-BGCMuSo process-based models to compare growth predictions with derived empirical models. Results revealed similar prediction errors (RMSE) across models ranging between 3.71 and 7.54 cm2 of basal area increment (BAI). The models explained most of the variability in BAI ranging from 54 % to 87 %. Selected explan-atory variables (despite being statistically highly significant) and the pattern of the growth sensitivity differed between models substantially. We identified only five factors with the same effect and the same sensitivity pattern in all empir-ical models: tree DBH, competition index, elevation, Gini index of DBH, and soil silt content. However, the sensitivity to most of the climate variables was low and inconsistent among the empirical models. Both empirical and process -based models suggest that beech in European mountains will, on average, likely experience better growth conditions under both 4.5 and 8.5 RCP scenarios. The process-based models indicated that beech may grow better across European mountains by 1.05 to 1.4 times in warmer conditions. The empirical models identified several drivers of tree growth that are not included in the current process-based models (e.g., different nutrients) but may have a sub-stantial effect on final results, particularly if they are limiting factors. Hence, future development of process-based models may build upon our findings to increase their ability to correctly capture ecosystem dynamics.
T2  - Science of the Total Environment
T1  - Empirical and process-based models predict enhanced beech growth in European mountains under climate change scenarios: A multimodel approach
VL  - 888
DO  - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164123
UR  - conv_931
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Bosela, Michal and Rubio-Cuadrado, Alvaro and Marcis, Peter and Merganicova, Katarina and Fleischer, Peter, Jr. and Forrester, David I. and Uhl, Enno and Avdagić, Admir and Bellan, Michal and Bielak, Kamil and Bravo, Felipe and Coll, Lluis and Cseke, Klara and del Rio, Miren and Dinca, Lucian and Dobor, Laura and Drozdowski, Stanislaw and Giammarchi, Francesco and Gomoryova, Erika and Ibrahimspahić, Aida and Kasanin-Grubin, Milica and Klopcić, Matija and Kurylyak, Viktor and Montes, Fernando and Pach, Maciej and Ruiz-Peinado, Ricardo and Skrzyszewski, Jerzy and Stajić, Branko and Stojanović, Dejan and Svoboda, Miroslav and Tonon, Giustino and Versace, Soraya and Mitrović, Suzana and Zlatanov, Tzvetan and Pretzsch, Hans and Tognetti, Roberto",
year = "2023",
abstract = "Process-based models and empirical modelling techniques are frequently used to (i) explore the sensitivity of tree growth to environmental variables, and (ii) predict the future growth of trees and forest stands under climate change scenarios. However, modelling approaches substantially influence predictions of the sensitivity of trees to environmen-tal factors. Here, we used tree-ring width (TRW) data from 1630 beech trees from a network of 70 plots established across European mountains to build empirical predictive growth models using various modelling approaches. In addi-tion, we used 3-PG and Biome-BGCMuSo process-based models to compare growth predictions with derived empirical models. Results revealed similar prediction errors (RMSE) across models ranging between 3.71 and 7.54 cm2 of basal area increment (BAI). The models explained most of the variability in BAI ranging from 54 % to 87 %. Selected explan-atory variables (despite being statistically highly significant) and the pattern of the growth sensitivity differed between models substantially. We identified only five factors with the same effect and the same sensitivity pattern in all empir-ical models: tree DBH, competition index, elevation, Gini index of DBH, and soil silt content. However, the sensitivity to most of the climate variables was low and inconsistent among the empirical models. Both empirical and process -based models suggest that beech in European mountains will, on average, likely experience better growth conditions under both 4.5 and 8.5 RCP scenarios. The process-based models indicated that beech may grow better across European mountains by 1.05 to 1.4 times in warmer conditions. The empirical models identified several drivers of tree growth that are not included in the current process-based models (e.g., different nutrients) but may have a sub-stantial effect on final results, particularly if they are limiting factors. Hence, future development of process-based models may build upon our findings to increase their ability to correctly capture ecosystem dynamics.",
journal = "Science of the Total Environment",
title = "Empirical and process-based models predict enhanced beech growth in European mountains under climate change scenarios: A multimodel approach",
volume = "888",
doi = "10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164123",
url = "conv_931"
}

Bosela, M., Rubio-Cuadrado, A., Marcis, P., Merganicova, K., Fleischer, P. Jr., Forrester, D. I., Uhl, E., Avdagić, A., Bellan, M., Bielak, K., Bravo, F., Coll, L., Cseke, K., del Rio, M., Dinca, L., Dobor, L., Drozdowski, S., Giammarchi, F., Gomoryova, E., Ibrahimspahić, A., Kasanin-Grubin, M., Klopcić, M., Kurylyak, V., Montes, F., Pach, M., Ruiz-Peinado, R., Skrzyszewski, J., Stajić, B., Stojanović, D., Svoboda, M., Tonon, G., Versace, S., Mitrović, S., Zlatanov, T., Pretzsch, H.,& Tognetti, R.. (2023). Empirical and process-based models predict enhanced beech growth in European mountains under climate change scenarios: A multimodel approach. in Science of the Total Environment, 888.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164123
conv_931

Bosela M, Rubio-Cuadrado A, Marcis P, Merganicova K, Fleischer PJ, Forrester DI, Uhl E, Avdagić A, Bellan M, Bielak K, Bravo F, Coll L, Cseke K, del Rio M, Dinca L, Dobor L, Drozdowski S, Giammarchi F, Gomoryova E, Ibrahimspahić A, Kasanin-Grubin M, Klopcić M, Kurylyak V, Montes F, Pach M, Ruiz-Peinado R, Skrzyszewski J, Stajić B, Stojanović D, Svoboda M, Tonon G, Versace S, Mitrović S, Zlatanov T, Pretzsch H, Tognetti R. Empirical and process-based models predict enhanced beech growth in European mountains under climate change scenarios: A multimodel approach. in Science of the Total Environment. 2023;888.
doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164123
conv_931 .

Bosela, Michal, Rubio-Cuadrado, Alvaro, Marcis, Peter, Merganicova, Katarina, Fleischer, Peter, Jr., Forrester, David I., Uhl, Enno, Avdagić, Admir, Bellan, Michal, Bielak, Kamil, Bravo, Felipe, Coll, Lluis, Cseke, Klara, del Rio, Miren, Dinca, Lucian, Dobor, Laura, Drozdowski, Stanislaw, Giammarchi, Francesco, Gomoryova, Erika, Ibrahimspahić, Aida, Kasanin-Grubin, Milica, Klopcić, Matija, Kurylyak, Viktor, Montes, Fernando, Pach, Maciej, Ruiz-Peinado, Ricardo, Skrzyszewski, Jerzy, Stajić, Branko, Stojanović, Dejan, Svoboda, Miroslav, Tonon, Giustino, Versace, Soraya, Mitrović, Suzana, Zlatanov, Tzvetan, Pretzsch, Hans, Tognetti, Roberto, "Empirical and process-based models predict enhanced beech growth in European mountains under climate change scenarios: A multimodel approach" in Science of the Total Environment, 888 (2023),
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164123 .,
conv_931 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Pretzsch, Hans
AU  - Hilmers, Torben
AU  - Uhl, Enno
AU  - Bielak, Kamil
AU  - Bosela, Michal
AU  - del Rio, Miren
AU  - Dobor, Laura
AU  - Forrester, David I.
AU  - Nagel, Thomas A.
AU  - Pach, Maciej
AU  - Avdagić, Admir
AU  - Bellan, Michal
AU  - Binder, Franz
AU  - Boncina, Andrej
AU  - Bravo, Felipe
AU  - de-Dios-Garcia, Javier
AU  - Dinca, Lucian
AU  - Drozdowski, Stanislaw
AU  - Giammarchi, Francesco
AU  - Hoehn, Maria
AU  - Ibrahimspahić, Aida
AU  - Jaworski, Andrzej
AU  - Klopcić, Matija
AU  - Kurylyak, Viktor
AU  - Levesque, Mathieu
AU  - Lombardi, Fabio
AU  - Matović, Bratislav
AU  - Ordonez, Cristobal
AU  - Petras, Rudolf
AU  - Rubio-Cuadrado, Alvaro
AU  - Stojanović, Dejan
AU  - Skrzyszewski, Jerzy
AU  - Stajić, Branko
AU  - Svoboda, Miroslav
AU  - Versace, Soraya
AU  - Zlatanov, Tzvetan
AU  - Tognetti, Roberto
PY  - 2021
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1170
AB  - Recent studies show that several tree species are spreading to higher latitudes and elevations due to climate change. European beech, presently dominating from the colline to the subalpine vegetation belt, is already present in upper montane subalpine forests and has a high potential to further advance to higher elevations in European mountain forests, where the temperature is predicted to further increase in the near future. Although essential for adaptive silviculture, it remains unknown whether the upward shift of beech could be assisted when it is mixed with Norway spruce or silver fir compared with mono-specific stands, as the species interactions under such conditions are hardly known. In this study, we posed the general hypotheses that the growth depending on age of European beech in mountain forests was similar in mono-specific and mixed-species stands and remained stable over time and space in the last two centuries. The scrutiny of these hypotheses was based on increment coring of 1240 dominant beech trees in 45 plots in mono-specific stands of beech and in 46 mixed mountain forests. We found that (i) on average, mean tree diameter increased linearly with age. The age trend was linear in both forest types, but the slope of the age-growth relationship was higher in mono-specific than in mixed mountain forests. (ii) Beech growth in mono-specific stands was stronger reduced with increasing elevation than that in mixed-species stands. (iii) Beech growth in mono-specific stands was on average higher than beech growth in mixed stands. However, at elevations  gt  1200 m, growth of beech in mixed stands was higher than that in mono-specific stands. Differences in the growth patterns among elevation zones are less pronounced now than in the past, in both mono-specific and mixed stands. As the higher and longer persisting growth rates extend the flexibility of suitable ages or size for tree harvest and removal, the longer-lasting growth may be of special relevance for multi-aged silviculture concepts. On top of their function for structure and habitat improvement, the remaining old trees may grow more in mass and value than assumed so far.
T2  - European Journal of Forest Research
T1  - European beech stem diameter grows better in mixed than in mono-specific stands at the edge of its distribution in mountain forests
EP  - 145
IS  - 1
SP  - 127
VL  - 140
DO  - 10.1007/s10342-020-01319-y
UR  - conv_929
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Pretzsch, Hans and Hilmers, Torben and Uhl, Enno and Bielak, Kamil and Bosela, Michal and del Rio, Miren and Dobor, Laura and Forrester, David I. and Nagel, Thomas A. and Pach, Maciej and Avdagić, Admir and Bellan, Michal and Binder, Franz and Boncina, Andrej and Bravo, Felipe and de-Dios-Garcia, Javier and Dinca, Lucian and Drozdowski, Stanislaw and Giammarchi, Francesco and Hoehn, Maria and Ibrahimspahić, Aida and Jaworski, Andrzej and Klopcić, Matija and Kurylyak, Viktor and Levesque, Mathieu and Lombardi, Fabio and Matović, Bratislav and Ordonez, Cristobal and Petras, Rudolf and Rubio-Cuadrado, Alvaro and Stojanović, Dejan and Skrzyszewski, Jerzy and Stajić, Branko and Svoboda, Miroslav and Versace, Soraya and Zlatanov, Tzvetan and Tognetti, Roberto",
year = "2021",
abstract = "Recent studies show that several tree species are spreading to higher latitudes and elevations due to climate change. European beech, presently dominating from the colline to the subalpine vegetation belt, is already present in upper montane subalpine forests and has a high potential to further advance to higher elevations in European mountain forests, where the temperature is predicted to further increase in the near future. Although essential for adaptive silviculture, it remains unknown whether the upward shift of beech could be assisted when it is mixed with Norway spruce or silver fir compared with mono-specific stands, as the species interactions under such conditions are hardly known. In this study, we posed the general hypotheses that the growth depending on age of European beech in mountain forests was similar in mono-specific and mixed-species stands and remained stable over time and space in the last two centuries. The scrutiny of these hypotheses was based on increment coring of 1240 dominant beech trees in 45 plots in mono-specific stands of beech and in 46 mixed mountain forests. We found that (i) on average, mean tree diameter increased linearly with age. The age trend was linear in both forest types, but the slope of the age-growth relationship was higher in mono-specific than in mixed mountain forests. (ii) Beech growth in mono-specific stands was stronger reduced with increasing elevation than that in mixed-species stands. (iii) Beech growth in mono-specific stands was on average higher than beech growth in mixed stands. However, at elevations  gt  1200 m, growth of beech in mixed stands was higher than that in mono-specific stands. Differences in the growth patterns among elevation zones are less pronounced now than in the past, in both mono-specific and mixed stands. As the higher and longer persisting growth rates extend the flexibility of suitable ages or size for tree harvest and removal, the longer-lasting growth may be of special relevance for multi-aged silviculture concepts. On top of their function for structure and habitat improvement, the remaining old trees may grow more in mass and value than assumed so far.",
journal = "European Journal of Forest Research",
title = "European beech stem diameter grows better in mixed than in mono-specific stands at the edge of its distribution in mountain forests",
pages = "145-127",
number = "1",
volume = "140",
doi = "10.1007/s10342-020-01319-y",
url = "conv_929"
}

Pretzsch, H., Hilmers, T., Uhl, E., Bielak, K., Bosela, M., del Rio, M., Dobor, L., Forrester, D. I., Nagel, T. A., Pach, M., Avdagić, A., Bellan, M., Binder, F., Boncina, A., Bravo, F., de-Dios-Garcia, J., Dinca, L., Drozdowski, S., Giammarchi, F., Hoehn, M., Ibrahimspahić, A., Jaworski, A., Klopcić, M., Kurylyak, V., Levesque, M., Lombardi, F., Matović, B., Ordonez, C., Petras, R., Rubio-Cuadrado, A., Stojanović, D., Skrzyszewski, J., Stajić, B., Svoboda, M., Versace, S., Zlatanov, T.,& Tognetti, R.. (2021). European beech stem diameter grows better in mixed than in mono-specific stands at the edge of its distribution in mountain forests. in European Journal of Forest Research, 140(1), 127-145.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-020-01319-y
conv_929

Pretzsch H, Hilmers T, Uhl E, Bielak K, Bosela M, del Rio M, Dobor L, Forrester DI, Nagel TA, Pach M, Avdagić A, Bellan M, Binder F, Boncina A, Bravo F, de-Dios-Garcia J, Dinca L, Drozdowski S, Giammarchi F, Hoehn M, Ibrahimspahić A, Jaworski A, Klopcić M, Kurylyak V, Levesque M, Lombardi F, Matović B, Ordonez C, Petras R, Rubio-Cuadrado A, Stojanović D, Skrzyszewski J, Stajić B, Svoboda M, Versace S, Zlatanov T, Tognetti R. European beech stem diameter grows better in mixed than in mono-specific stands at the edge of its distribution in mountain forests. in European Journal of Forest Research. 2021;140(1):127-145.
doi:10.1007/s10342-020-01319-y
conv_929 .

Pretzsch, Hans, Hilmers, Torben, Uhl, Enno, Bielak, Kamil, Bosela, Michal, del Rio, Miren, Dobor, Laura, Forrester, David I., Nagel, Thomas A., Pach, Maciej, Avdagić, Admir, Bellan, Michal, Binder, Franz, Boncina, Andrej, Bravo, Felipe, de-Dios-Garcia, Javier, Dinca, Lucian, Drozdowski, Stanislaw, Giammarchi, Francesco, Hoehn, Maria, Ibrahimspahić, Aida, Jaworski, Andrzej, Klopcić, Matija, Kurylyak, Viktor, Levesque, Mathieu, Lombardi, Fabio, Matović, Bratislav, Ordonez, Cristobal, Petras, Rudolf, Rubio-Cuadrado, Alvaro, Stojanović, Dejan, Skrzyszewski, Jerzy, Stajić, Branko, Svoboda, Miroslav, Versace, Soraya, Zlatanov, Tzvetan, Tognetti, Roberto, "European beech stem diameter grows better in mixed than in mono-specific stands at the edge of its distribution in mountain forests" in European Journal of Forest Research, 140, no. 1 (2021):127-145,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-020-01319-y .,
conv_929 .