TY  - JOUR
AU  - Bezdan, Atila
AU  - Bezdan, Jovana
AU  - Blagojević, Boško
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
AU  - Lazić, Irida
AU  - Tošić, Milica
AU  - Đurđević, Vladimir
PY  - 2024
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1458
AB  - One of the frequently used drought metrics in scientific research is the consecutive dry days (CDDs) because it effectively indicates short-term droughts important to ecosystems and agriculture. CDDs are expected to increase in many parts of the world in the future. In Serbia, both the frequency and severity of droughts have increased in recent decades, with most droughts being caused by a lack of precipitation during the warmer months of the year and an increase in evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. In this study, the frequency and duration of extreme CDDs in the growing season in Serbia were analysed for the past (1950-2019) and the future (2020-2100) period. The Threshold Level Method over precipitation data series was used to analyse CDD events, where extreme CDDs are defined as at least 15 consecutive days without precipitation. In contrast to the original definition of the CDD as the maximum number of consecutive days with precipitation less than 1 mm, here we defined the threshold that is more suitable for agriculture because field crops can experience water stress after 15 days of no rainfall or irrigation. An approach for modelling the stochastic process of extreme CDDs based on the Zelenhasi & cacute;-Todorovi & cacute; (ZT) method was applied in this research. The ZT method was modified by selecting a different distribution function for modelling the durations of the longest CDD events, enabling a more reliable calculation of probabilities of occurrences. According to the results, future droughts in Serbia are likely to be more frequent and severe than those in the past. The duration of the longest CDDs in a growing season will be extended in the future, lasting up to 62 days with a 10-year return period and up to 94 days with a 100-year return period. Results indicate a worsening of drought conditions, especially in the eastern and northern parts of Serbia. The results can help decision-makers adapt agricultural strategies to climate change by providing information on the expected durations of extreme rainless periods in future growing seasons. Although the analysis was performed in Serbia, it can be applied to any other region.
T2  - International Journal of Climatology
T1  - Observed characteristics and projected future changes of extreme consecutive dry days events of the growing season in Serbia
EP  - 4141
IS  - 11
SP  - 4127
VL  - 44
DO  - 10.1002/joc.8573
UR  - conv_1804
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Bezdan, Atila and Bezdan, Jovana and Blagojević, Boško and Baumgertel, Aleksandar and Lazić, Irida and Tošić, Milica and Đurđević, Vladimir",
year = "2024",
abstract = "One of the frequently used drought metrics in scientific research is the consecutive dry days (CDDs) because it effectively indicates short-term droughts important to ecosystems and agriculture. CDDs are expected to increase in many parts of the world in the future. In Serbia, both the frequency and severity of droughts have increased in recent decades, with most droughts being caused by a lack of precipitation during the warmer months of the year and an increase in evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. In this study, the frequency and duration of extreme CDDs in the growing season in Serbia were analysed for the past (1950-2019) and the future (2020-2100) period. The Threshold Level Method over precipitation data series was used to analyse CDD events, where extreme CDDs are defined as at least 15 consecutive days without precipitation. In contrast to the original definition of the CDD as the maximum number of consecutive days with precipitation less than 1 mm, here we defined the threshold that is more suitable for agriculture because field crops can experience water stress after 15 days of no rainfall or irrigation. An approach for modelling the stochastic process of extreme CDDs based on the Zelenhasi & cacute;-Todorovi & cacute; (ZT) method was applied in this research. The ZT method was modified by selecting a different distribution function for modelling the durations of the longest CDD events, enabling a more reliable calculation of probabilities of occurrences. According to the results, future droughts in Serbia are likely to be more frequent and severe than those in the past. The duration of the longest CDDs in a growing season will be extended in the future, lasting up to 62 days with a 10-year return period and up to 94 days with a 100-year return period. Results indicate a worsening of drought conditions, especially in the eastern and northern parts of Serbia. The results can help decision-makers adapt agricultural strategies to climate change by providing information on the expected durations of extreme rainless periods in future growing seasons. Although the analysis was performed in Serbia, it can be applied to any other region.",
journal = "International Journal of Climatology",
title = "Observed characteristics and projected future changes of extreme consecutive dry days events of the growing season in Serbia",
pages = "4141-4127",
number = "11",
volume = "44",
doi = "10.1002/joc.8573",
url = "conv_1804"
}

Bezdan, A., Bezdan, J., Blagojević, B., Baumgertel, A., Lazić, I., Tošić, M.,& Đurđević, V.. (2024). Observed characteristics and projected future changes of extreme consecutive dry days events of the growing season in Serbia. in International Journal of Climatology, 44(11), 4127-4141.
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8573
conv_1804

Bezdan A, Bezdan J, Blagojević B, Baumgertel A, Lazić I, Tošić M, Đurđević V. Observed characteristics and projected future changes of extreme consecutive dry days events of the growing season in Serbia. in International Journal of Climatology. 2024;44(11):4127-4141.
doi:10.1002/joc.8573
conv_1804 .

Bezdan, Atila, Bezdan, Jovana, Blagojević, Boško, Baumgertel, Aleksandar, Lazić, Irida, Tošić, Milica, Đurđević, Vladimir, "Observed characteristics and projected future changes of extreme consecutive dry days events of the growing season in Serbia" in International Journal of Climatology, 44, no. 11 (2024):4127-4141,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8573 .,
conv_1804 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
AU  - Lukić, Sara
AU  - Caković, Milica
AU  - Lazić, Irida
AU  - Tošić, Milica
AU  - Momirović, Natalija
AU  - Pandey, Shachi
AU  - Bezdan, Atila
AU  - Blagojević, Boško
AU  - Đurđević, Vladimir
PY  - 2024
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1495
AB  - Climate change has a potentially negative impact on the overall vitality of vegetation in both forested and agricultural areas. A comprehensive understanding of the interaction between climate and vegetation across various land cover types holds significant importance from multiple perspectives. This research examined the current state of vegetation trends and their interplay with climate parameters, specifically temperature and precipitation. Additionally, it aimed to provide insights into the anticipated changes in these climate parameters in the future, across the entire area of the Republic of Serbia. The vegetation was observed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from AVHRR/NOAA 11 satellite for the vegetation season (May-October) from 1981 to 2021, while the climate data records used the examination of the relationship between climate indicators and vegetation were monthly mean 2m temperature and precipitation obtained from the ERA5-Land (from April to October). The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test implemented with the Sen's slope estimator and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) was utilized to identify trends (for the NDVI and climate variables) and the strength of the correlation, respectively. To obtain the information of temperature and precipitation change in future (from 2071 to 2100), the ensemble mean of the eight climate models, for vegetation period and summer season (June-July-August) from the EURO-CORDEX database was used. Results show relatively high NDVI values ( gt  0.5) over the entire area and the statistically significant (p  lt  0.005) positive NDVI trend increasing (up to 0.0006 year(-1) from the north (mainly agriculture cover) to the south (forest cover). In agricultural areas, a positive statistically significant correlation (r = 0.4-0.6, p  lt  0.005) indicates that the quality of vegetation cover in rainfed agriculture is directly dependent on the amount of precipitation, which serves as the sole source of moisture input. In contrast, the situation differs in forested areas where the correlation between NDVI and precipitation is often statistically not significant (p  gt  0.005) indicating that forests, because of their characteristics, are less dependent on the amount of precipitation. Regarding temperature, in agricultural areas, there is a positive correlation with NDVI, although it does not reach statistical significance. Conversely, in forested areas, a significant positive correlation is observed between NDVI and temperature which even positively contributes to the development of forest vegetation. In future, the recorded decline in precipitation (a substantial 22.72% drop) and the concurrent rise in temperature (up to 4.39(degrees)C) in vegetation period, until 2100 might impact the reduction of NDVI.
T2  - International Journal of Environmental Research
T1  - Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Vegetation Response to Climate Change, Case Study: Republic of Serbia
IS  - 2
VL  - 18
DO  - 10.1007/s41742-024-00571-z
UR  - conv_1767
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Baumgertel, Aleksandar and Lukić, Sara and Caković, Milica and Lazić, Irida and Tošić, Milica and Momirović, Natalija and Pandey, Shachi and Bezdan, Atila and Blagojević, Boško and Đurđević, Vladimir",
year = "2024",
abstract = "Climate change has a potentially negative impact on the overall vitality of vegetation in both forested and agricultural areas. A comprehensive understanding of the interaction between climate and vegetation across various land cover types holds significant importance from multiple perspectives. This research examined the current state of vegetation trends and their interplay with climate parameters, specifically temperature and precipitation. Additionally, it aimed to provide insights into the anticipated changes in these climate parameters in the future, across the entire area of the Republic of Serbia. The vegetation was observed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from AVHRR/NOAA 11 satellite for the vegetation season (May-October) from 1981 to 2021, while the climate data records used the examination of the relationship between climate indicators and vegetation were monthly mean 2m temperature and precipitation obtained from the ERA5-Land (from April to October). The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test implemented with the Sen's slope estimator and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) was utilized to identify trends (for the NDVI and climate variables) and the strength of the correlation, respectively. To obtain the information of temperature and precipitation change in future (from 2071 to 2100), the ensemble mean of the eight climate models, for vegetation period and summer season (June-July-August) from the EURO-CORDEX database was used. Results show relatively high NDVI values ( gt  0.5) over the entire area and the statistically significant (p  lt  0.005) positive NDVI trend increasing (up to 0.0006 year(-1) from the north (mainly agriculture cover) to the south (forest cover). In agricultural areas, a positive statistically significant correlation (r = 0.4-0.6, p  lt  0.005) indicates that the quality of vegetation cover in rainfed agriculture is directly dependent on the amount of precipitation, which serves as the sole source of moisture input. In contrast, the situation differs in forested areas where the correlation between NDVI and precipitation is often statistically not significant (p  gt  0.005) indicating that forests, because of their characteristics, are less dependent on the amount of precipitation. Regarding temperature, in agricultural areas, there is a positive correlation with NDVI, although it does not reach statistical significance. Conversely, in forested areas, a significant positive correlation is observed between NDVI and temperature which even positively contributes to the development of forest vegetation. In future, the recorded decline in precipitation (a substantial 22.72% drop) and the concurrent rise in temperature (up to 4.39(degrees)C) in vegetation period, until 2100 might impact the reduction of NDVI.",
journal = "International Journal of Environmental Research",
title = "Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Vegetation Response to Climate Change, Case Study: Republic of Serbia",
number = "2",
volume = "18",
doi = "10.1007/s41742-024-00571-z",
url = "conv_1767"
}

Baumgertel, A., Lukić, S., Caković, M., Lazić, I., Tošić, M., Momirović, N., Pandey, S., Bezdan, A., Blagojević, B.,& Đurđević, V.. (2024). Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Vegetation Response to Climate Change, Case Study: Republic of Serbia. in International Journal of Environmental Research, 18(2).
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41742-024-00571-z
conv_1767

Baumgertel A, Lukić S, Caković M, Lazić I, Tošić M, Momirović N, Pandey S, Bezdan A, Blagojević B, Đurđević V. Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Vegetation Response to Climate Change, Case Study: Republic of Serbia. in International Journal of Environmental Research. 2024;18(2).
doi:10.1007/s41742-024-00571-z
conv_1767 .

Baumgertel, Aleksandar, Lukić, Sara, Caković, Milica, Lazić, Irida, Tošić, Milica, Momirović, Natalija, Pandey, Shachi, Bezdan, Atila, Blagojević, Boško, Đurđević, Vladimir, "Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Vegetation Response to Climate Change, Case Study: Republic of Serbia" in International Journal of Environmental Research, 18, no. 2 (2024),
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41742-024-00571-z .,
conv_1767 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
AU  - Lukić, Sara
AU  - Caković, Milica
AU  - Miljković, Predrag
AU  - Tošić, Milica
AU  - Lazić, Irida
AU  - Đurđević, Vladimir
AU  - Marković, Mladen
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1291
AB  - Climate indicators (temperature and precipitation) are particularly important in times of global climate change because they create the preconditions for the development of wind erosion. The main goal of this research is to analyse the land's susceptibility to wind erosion in the future, using the fuzzy logic for the non-growing season (March and November) as well as for the growing season (July). The climate factor (CF) has been calculated for four different time periods: 1971-2000, 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The data were extracted for 11 different combinations of regional climate models (RCMs) and global climate models (GCMs) using the EURO-CORDEX database. The climate sensitivity to wind erosion is bound to be significantly higher in the growing season (late 21st century) due to the increase in the average monthly air temperature and the decrease in precipitation.
T2  - International Journal of Global Warming
T1  - Spatiotemporal analysis of the future sensitivity to wind erosion using ensemble of the regional climate models: a case study
EP  - 299
IS  - 3
SP  - 284
VL  - 27
DO  - 10.1504/IJGW.2022.124203
UR  - conv_1646
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Baumgertel, Aleksandar and Lukić, Sara and Caković, Milica and Miljković, Predrag and Tošić, Milica and Lazić, Irida and Đurđević, Vladimir and Marković, Mladen",
year = "2022",
abstract = "Climate indicators (temperature and precipitation) are particularly important in times of global climate change because they create the preconditions for the development of wind erosion. The main goal of this research is to analyse the land's susceptibility to wind erosion in the future, using the fuzzy logic for the non-growing season (March and November) as well as for the growing season (July). The climate factor (CF) has been calculated for four different time periods: 1971-2000, 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The data were extracted for 11 different combinations of regional climate models (RCMs) and global climate models (GCMs) using the EURO-CORDEX database. The climate sensitivity to wind erosion is bound to be significantly higher in the growing season (late 21st century) due to the increase in the average monthly air temperature and the decrease in precipitation.",
journal = "International Journal of Global Warming",
title = "Spatiotemporal analysis of the future sensitivity to wind erosion using ensemble of the regional climate models: a case study",
pages = "299-284",
number = "3",
volume = "27",
doi = "10.1504/IJGW.2022.124203",
url = "conv_1646"
}

Baumgertel, A., Lukić, S., Caković, M., Miljković, P., Tošić, M., Lazić, I., Đurđević, V.,& Marković, M.. (2022). Spatiotemporal analysis of the future sensitivity to wind erosion using ensemble of the regional climate models: a case study. in International Journal of Global Warming, 27(3), 284-299.
https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2022.124203
conv_1646

Baumgertel A, Lukić S, Caković M, Miljković P, Tošić M, Lazić I, Đurđević V, Marković M. Spatiotemporal analysis of the future sensitivity to wind erosion using ensemble of the regional climate models: a case study. in International Journal of Global Warming. 2022;27(3):284-299.
doi:10.1504/IJGW.2022.124203
conv_1646 .

Baumgertel, Aleksandar, Lukić, Sara, Caković, Milica, Miljković, Predrag, Tošić, Milica, Lazić, Irida, Đurđević, Vladimir, Marković, Mladen, "Spatiotemporal analysis of the future sensitivity to wind erosion using ensemble of the regional climate models: a case study" in International Journal of Global Warming, 27, no. 3 (2022):284-299,
https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2022.124203 .,
conv_1646 .