TY  - JOUR
AU  - Bezdan, Atila
AU  - Bezdan, Jovana
AU  - Marković, Monika
AU  - Mirčetić, Dejan
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
AU  - Salvai, Andrea
AU  - Blagojević, Boško
PY  - 2025
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1538
AB  - Waterlogging disasters are one of the most severe and widespread agricultural meteorological disasters. They affect about 15% of land surface globally, causing a significant reduction in crop growth and yields. This paper presents an objective methodology for assessing waterlogging risk, primarily in non-urban, predominantly agricultural areas. The waterlogging risk was assessed by evaluating vulnerability and hazard based on key environmental, anthropogenic, and climatic factors. The weights of factors affecting the waterlogging vulnerability were determined using the entropy weight method (EWM), assuring the objectivity of the overall evaluation results. The obtained waterlogging risk map was validated by comparing it with observed and detected waterlogged sites using Sentinel-2 imagery and Random Forest classification. The key novelties of this study are the use of the entropy weight method to objectively determine the relative importance of factors influencing waterlogging vulnerability, and a two-step validation process which includes field-based comparison and remote sensing validation. The presented methodology was demonstrated in the Vojvodina region, Serbia. The following waterlogging vulnerability factors were used: soil properties, geomorphology, surface depressions, average phreatic water table depth, and land cover. The EWM shows that surface depressions and soil properties have the most significant influence on waterlogging vulnerability. The highest waterlogging hazard classes occur in about 31% of the analyzed territory. The waterlogging hazard was estimated based on water balance for the non-vegetation season and maximum daily precipitation in spring, both modeled using the Generalize Extreme Value distribution function. The highest waterlogging hazard classes occur in about 31% of the analyzed territory. The final risk map shows that the high waterlogging risk occurs in about 11% of the territory. Those are mainly areas in the central, eastern, and southeastern parts of the Vojvodina region, usually along the main watercourses. High agreement between the detected waterlogged areas and the produced waterlogging risk map was achieved, validating the proposed methodology. The presented waterlogging risk assessment methodology is valuable for planning and policy-making for various water management and environmental activities. Although it is demonstrated in Vojvodina, by selecting the appropriate factors of vulnerability and hazard, it can be applied to any other region.
T2  - CATENA
T1  - An objective methodology for waterlogging risk assessment based on the entropy weighting method and machine learning
SP  - 108618
VL  - 249
DO  - 10.1016/j.catena.2024.108618
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Bezdan, Atila and Bezdan, Jovana and Marković, Monika and Mirčetić, Dejan and Baumgertel, Aleksandar and Salvai, Andrea and Blagojević, Boško",
year = "2025",
abstract = "Waterlogging disasters are one of the most severe and widespread agricultural meteorological disasters. They affect about 15% of land surface globally, causing a significant reduction in crop growth and yields. This paper presents an objective methodology for assessing waterlogging risk, primarily in non-urban, predominantly agricultural areas. The waterlogging risk was assessed by evaluating vulnerability and hazard based on key environmental, anthropogenic, and climatic factors. The weights of factors affecting the waterlogging vulnerability were determined using the entropy weight method (EWM), assuring the objectivity of the overall evaluation results. The obtained waterlogging risk map was validated by comparing it with observed and detected waterlogged sites using Sentinel-2 imagery and Random Forest classification. The key novelties of this study are the use of the entropy weight method to objectively determine the relative importance of factors influencing waterlogging vulnerability, and a two-step validation process which includes field-based comparison and remote sensing validation. The presented methodology was demonstrated in the Vojvodina region, Serbia. The following waterlogging vulnerability factors were used: soil properties, geomorphology, surface depressions, average phreatic water table depth, and land cover. The EWM shows that surface depressions and soil properties have the most significant influence on waterlogging vulnerability. The highest waterlogging hazard classes occur in about 31% of the analyzed territory. The waterlogging hazard was estimated based on water balance for the non-vegetation season and maximum daily precipitation in spring, both modeled using the Generalize Extreme Value distribution function. The highest waterlogging hazard classes occur in about 31% of the analyzed territory. The final risk map shows that the high waterlogging risk occurs in about 11% of the territory. Those are mainly areas in the central, eastern, and southeastern parts of the Vojvodina region, usually along the main watercourses. High agreement between the detected waterlogged areas and the produced waterlogging risk map was achieved, validating the proposed methodology. The presented waterlogging risk assessment methodology is valuable for planning and policy-making for various water management and environmental activities. Although it is demonstrated in Vojvodina, by selecting the appropriate factors of vulnerability and hazard, it can be applied to any other region.",
journal = "CATENA",
title = "An objective methodology for waterlogging risk assessment based on the entropy weighting method and machine learning",
pages = "108618",
volume = "249",
doi = "10.1016/j.catena.2024.108618"
}

Bezdan, A., Bezdan, J., Marković, M., Mirčetić, D., Baumgertel, A., Salvai, A.,& Blagojević, B.. (2025). An objective methodology for waterlogging risk assessment based on the entropy weighting method and machine learning. in CATENA, 249, 108618.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2024.108618

Bezdan A, Bezdan J, Marković M, Mirčetić D, Baumgertel A, Salvai A, Blagojević B. An objective methodology for waterlogging risk assessment based on the entropy weighting method and machine learning. in CATENA. 2025;249:108618.
doi:10.1016/j.catena.2024.108618 .

Bezdan, Atila, Bezdan, Jovana, Marković, Monika, Mirčetić, Dejan, Baumgertel, Aleksandar, Salvai, Andrea, Blagojević, Boško, "An objective methodology for waterlogging risk assessment based on the entropy weighting method and machine learning" in CATENA, 249 (2025):108618,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2024.108618 . .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Bezdan, Atila
AU  - Bezdan, Jovana
AU  - Blagojević, Boško
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
AU  - Lazić, Irida
AU  - Tošić, Milica
AU  - Đurđević, Vladimir
PY  - 2024
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1458
AB  - One of the frequently used drought metrics in scientific research is the consecutive dry days (CDDs) because it effectively indicates short-term droughts important to ecosystems and agriculture. CDDs are expected to increase in many parts of the world in the future. In Serbia, both the frequency and severity of droughts have increased in recent decades, with most droughts being caused by a lack of precipitation during the warmer months of the year and an increase in evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. In this study, the frequency and duration of extreme CDDs in the growing season in Serbia were analysed for the past (1950-2019) and the future (2020-2100) period. The Threshold Level Method over precipitation data series was used to analyse CDD events, where extreme CDDs are defined as at least 15 consecutive days without precipitation. In contrast to the original definition of the CDD as the maximum number of consecutive days with precipitation less than 1 mm, here we defined the threshold that is more suitable for agriculture because field crops can experience water stress after 15 days of no rainfall or irrigation. An approach for modelling the stochastic process of extreme CDDs based on the Zelenhasi & cacute;-Todorovi & cacute; (ZT) method was applied in this research. The ZT method was modified by selecting a different distribution function for modelling the durations of the longest CDD events, enabling a more reliable calculation of probabilities of occurrences. According to the results, future droughts in Serbia are likely to be more frequent and severe than those in the past. The duration of the longest CDDs in a growing season will be extended in the future, lasting up to 62 days with a 10-year return period and up to 94 days with a 100-year return period. Results indicate a worsening of drought conditions, especially in the eastern and northern parts of Serbia. The results can help decision-makers adapt agricultural strategies to climate change by providing information on the expected durations of extreme rainless periods in future growing seasons. Although the analysis was performed in Serbia, it can be applied to any other region.
T2  - International Journal of Climatology
T1  - Observed characteristics and projected future changes of extreme consecutive dry days events of the growing season in Serbia
EP  - 4141
IS  - 11
SP  - 4127
VL  - 44
DO  - 10.1002/joc.8573
UR  - conv_1804
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Bezdan, Atila and Bezdan, Jovana and Blagojević, Boško and Baumgertel, Aleksandar and Lazić, Irida and Tošić, Milica and Đurđević, Vladimir",
year = "2024",
abstract = "One of the frequently used drought metrics in scientific research is the consecutive dry days (CDDs) because it effectively indicates short-term droughts important to ecosystems and agriculture. CDDs are expected to increase in many parts of the world in the future. In Serbia, both the frequency and severity of droughts have increased in recent decades, with most droughts being caused by a lack of precipitation during the warmer months of the year and an increase in evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. In this study, the frequency and duration of extreme CDDs in the growing season in Serbia were analysed for the past (1950-2019) and the future (2020-2100) period. The Threshold Level Method over precipitation data series was used to analyse CDD events, where extreme CDDs are defined as at least 15 consecutive days without precipitation. In contrast to the original definition of the CDD as the maximum number of consecutive days with precipitation less than 1 mm, here we defined the threshold that is more suitable for agriculture because field crops can experience water stress after 15 days of no rainfall or irrigation. An approach for modelling the stochastic process of extreme CDDs based on the Zelenhasi & cacute;-Todorovi & cacute; (ZT) method was applied in this research. The ZT method was modified by selecting a different distribution function for modelling the durations of the longest CDD events, enabling a more reliable calculation of probabilities of occurrences. According to the results, future droughts in Serbia are likely to be more frequent and severe than those in the past. The duration of the longest CDDs in a growing season will be extended in the future, lasting up to 62 days with a 10-year return period and up to 94 days with a 100-year return period. Results indicate a worsening of drought conditions, especially in the eastern and northern parts of Serbia. The results can help decision-makers adapt agricultural strategies to climate change by providing information on the expected durations of extreme rainless periods in future growing seasons. Although the analysis was performed in Serbia, it can be applied to any other region.",
journal = "International Journal of Climatology",
title = "Observed characteristics and projected future changes of extreme consecutive dry days events of the growing season in Serbia",
pages = "4141-4127",
number = "11",
volume = "44",
doi = "10.1002/joc.8573",
url = "conv_1804"
}

Bezdan, A., Bezdan, J., Blagojević, B., Baumgertel, A., Lazić, I., Tošić, M.,& Đurđević, V.. (2024). Observed characteristics and projected future changes of extreme consecutive dry days events of the growing season in Serbia. in International Journal of Climatology, 44(11), 4127-4141.
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8573
conv_1804

Bezdan A, Bezdan J, Blagojević B, Baumgertel A, Lazić I, Tošić M, Đurđević V. Observed characteristics and projected future changes of extreme consecutive dry days events of the growing season in Serbia. in International Journal of Climatology. 2024;44(11):4127-4141.
doi:10.1002/joc.8573
conv_1804 .

Bezdan, Atila, Bezdan, Jovana, Blagojević, Boško, Baumgertel, Aleksandar, Lazić, Irida, Tošić, Milica, Đurđević, Vladimir, "Observed characteristics and projected future changes of extreme consecutive dry days events of the growing season in Serbia" in International Journal of Climatology, 44, no. 11 (2024):4127-4141,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8573 .,
conv_1804 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
AU  - Lukić, Sara
AU  - Caković, Milica
AU  - Lazić, Irida
AU  - Tošić, Milica
AU  - Momirović, Natalija
AU  - Pandey, Shachi
AU  - Bezdan, Atila
AU  - Blagojević, Boško
AU  - Đurđević, Vladimir
PY  - 2024
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1495
AB  - Climate change has a potentially negative impact on the overall vitality of vegetation in both forested and agricultural areas. A comprehensive understanding of the interaction between climate and vegetation across various land cover types holds significant importance from multiple perspectives. This research examined the current state of vegetation trends and their interplay with climate parameters, specifically temperature and precipitation. Additionally, it aimed to provide insights into the anticipated changes in these climate parameters in the future, across the entire area of the Republic of Serbia. The vegetation was observed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from AVHRR/NOAA 11 satellite for the vegetation season (May-October) from 1981 to 2021, while the climate data records used the examination of the relationship between climate indicators and vegetation were monthly mean 2m temperature and precipitation obtained from the ERA5-Land (from April to October). The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test implemented with the Sen's slope estimator and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) was utilized to identify trends (for the NDVI and climate variables) and the strength of the correlation, respectively. To obtain the information of temperature and precipitation change in future (from 2071 to 2100), the ensemble mean of the eight climate models, for vegetation period and summer season (June-July-August) from the EURO-CORDEX database was used. Results show relatively high NDVI values ( gt  0.5) over the entire area and the statistically significant (p  lt  0.005) positive NDVI trend increasing (up to 0.0006 year(-1) from the north (mainly agriculture cover) to the south (forest cover). In agricultural areas, a positive statistically significant correlation (r = 0.4-0.6, p  lt  0.005) indicates that the quality of vegetation cover in rainfed agriculture is directly dependent on the amount of precipitation, which serves as the sole source of moisture input. In contrast, the situation differs in forested areas where the correlation between NDVI and precipitation is often statistically not significant (p  gt  0.005) indicating that forests, because of their characteristics, are less dependent on the amount of precipitation. Regarding temperature, in agricultural areas, there is a positive correlation with NDVI, although it does not reach statistical significance. Conversely, in forested areas, a significant positive correlation is observed between NDVI and temperature which even positively contributes to the development of forest vegetation. In future, the recorded decline in precipitation (a substantial 22.72% drop) and the concurrent rise in temperature (up to 4.39(degrees)C) in vegetation period, until 2100 might impact the reduction of NDVI.
T2  - International Journal of Environmental Research
T1  - Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Vegetation Response to Climate Change, Case Study: Republic of Serbia
IS  - 2
VL  - 18
DO  - 10.1007/s41742-024-00571-z
UR  - conv_1767
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Baumgertel, Aleksandar and Lukić, Sara and Caković, Milica and Lazić, Irida and Tošić, Milica and Momirović, Natalija and Pandey, Shachi and Bezdan, Atila and Blagojević, Boško and Đurđević, Vladimir",
year = "2024",
abstract = "Climate change has a potentially negative impact on the overall vitality of vegetation in both forested and agricultural areas. A comprehensive understanding of the interaction between climate and vegetation across various land cover types holds significant importance from multiple perspectives. This research examined the current state of vegetation trends and their interplay with climate parameters, specifically temperature and precipitation. Additionally, it aimed to provide insights into the anticipated changes in these climate parameters in the future, across the entire area of the Republic of Serbia. The vegetation was observed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from AVHRR/NOAA 11 satellite for the vegetation season (May-October) from 1981 to 2021, while the climate data records used the examination of the relationship between climate indicators and vegetation were monthly mean 2m temperature and precipitation obtained from the ERA5-Land (from April to October). The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test implemented with the Sen's slope estimator and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) was utilized to identify trends (for the NDVI and climate variables) and the strength of the correlation, respectively. To obtain the information of temperature and precipitation change in future (from 2071 to 2100), the ensemble mean of the eight climate models, for vegetation period and summer season (June-July-August) from the EURO-CORDEX database was used. Results show relatively high NDVI values ( gt  0.5) over the entire area and the statistically significant (p  lt  0.005) positive NDVI trend increasing (up to 0.0006 year(-1) from the north (mainly agriculture cover) to the south (forest cover). In agricultural areas, a positive statistically significant correlation (r = 0.4-0.6, p  lt  0.005) indicates that the quality of vegetation cover in rainfed agriculture is directly dependent on the amount of precipitation, which serves as the sole source of moisture input. In contrast, the situation differs in forested areas where the correlation between NDVI and precipitation is often statistically not significant (p  gt  0.005) indicating that forests, because of their characteristics, are less dependent on the amount of precipitation. Regarding temperature, in agricultural areas, there is a positive correlation with NDVI, although it does not reach statistical significance. Conversely, in forested areas, a significant positive correlation is observed between NDVI and temperature which even positively contributes to the development of forest vegetation. In future, the recorded decline in precipitation (a substantial 22.72% drop) and the concurrent rise in temperature (up to 4.39(degrees)C) in vegetation period, until 2100 might impact the reduction of NDVI.",
journal = "International Journal of Environmental Research",
title = "Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Vegetation Response to Climate Change, Case Study: Republic of Serbia",
number = "2",
volume = "18",
doi = "10.1007/s41742-024-00571-z",
url = "conv_1767"
}

Baumgertel, A., Lukić, S., Caković, M., Lazić, I., Tošić, M., Momirović, N., Pandey, S., Bezdan, A., Blagojević, B.,& Đurđević, V.. (2024). Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Vegetation Response to Climate Change, Case Study: Republic of Serbia. in International Journal of Environmental Research, 18(2).
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41742-024-00571-z
conv_1767

Baumgertel A, Lukić S, Caković M, Lazić I, Tošić M, Momirović N, Pandey S, Bezdan A, Blagojević B, Đurđević V. Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Vegetation Response to Climate Change, Case Study: Republic of Serbia. in International Journal of Environmental Research. 2024;18(2).
doi:10.1007/s41742-024-00571-z
conv_1767 .

Baumgertel, Aleksandar, Lukić, Sara, Caković, Milica, Lazić, Irida, Tošić, Milica, Momirović, Natalija, Pandey, Shachi, Bezdan, Atila, Blagojević, Boško, Đurđević, Vladimir, "Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Vegetation Response to Climate Change, Case Study: Republic of Serbia" in International Journal of Environmental Research, 18, no. 2 (2024),
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41742-024-00571-z .,
conv_1767 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Belanović Simić, Snežana
AU  - Miljković, Predrag
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
AU  - Lukić, Sara
AU  - Ljubičić, Janko
AU  - Čakmak, Dragan
PY  - 2023
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1435
AB  - Background: Anthropogenic activities have clearly affected the environment, with irreversible and destructive consequences. Mining activities have a significant negative impact, primarily on soil, and then on human health. The negative impact of the first mining activities is represented even today in the soils of those localities. Research shows that, for different types of mines, the concentrations of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) are high, especially in antimony, multi-metal and lead-zinc mines, which have adverse effects on the environment and then on human health and the economy. A large flood in 2014 in Western Serbia resulted in the breaking of the dam of the processed antimony ore dump of the former antimony mine, causing toxic tailings to spill and pollute the downstream area. Due to this accident, tailings material flooded the area downstream of the dump, and severely affected the local agriculture and population. Methods: Potentially toxic elements content, pollution indices and health indices were determined in soil samples from the flooded area, using referenced methodologies. The sources and routes of pollutants and risks were determined and quantified using statistical principal component analysis, positive matrix factorisation, and a Monte Carlo simulation. Results: The main source of As, Cd, Hg, Pb, Sb and Zn in the upper part of the study area was the tailing material. Based on the pollution indices, about 72% of the studied samples show a high risk of contamination and are mainly distributed immediately downstream of the tailings dump that was spilled due to heavy rainfall. Conclusions: Although the content of the PTEs is high, there is no non-carcinogenic risk for any PTEs except As, for which a threshold risk was determined. There is no carcinogenic risk in the study area.
T2  - Land
T1  - Environmental and Health Risk Assessment Due to Potentially Toxic Elements in Soil near Former Antimony Mine in Western Serbia
IS  - 2
VL  - 12
DO  - 10.3390/land12020421
UR  - conv_1688
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Belanović Simić, Snežana and Miljković, Predrag and Baumgertel, Aleksandar and Lukić, Sara and Ljubičić, Janko and Čakmak, Dragan",
year = "2023",
abstract = "Background: Anthropogenic activities have clearly affected the environment, with irreversible and destructive consequences. Mining activities have a significant negative impact, primarily on soil, and then on human health. The negative impact of the first mining activities is represented even today in the soils of those localities. Research shows that, for different types of mines, the concentrations of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) are high, especially in antimony, multi-metal and lead-zinc mines, which have adverse effects on the environment and then on human health and the economy. A large flood in 2014 in Western Serbia resulted in the breaking of the dam of the processed antimony ore dump of the former antimony mine, causing toxic tailings to spill and pollute the downstream area. Due to this accident, tailings material flooded the area downstream of the dump, and severely affected the local agriculture and population. Methods: Potentially toxic elements content, pollution indices and health indices were determined in soil samples from the flooded area, using referenced methodologies. The sources and routes of pollutants and risks were determined and quantified using statistical principal component analysis, positive matrix factorisation, and a Monte Carlo simulation. Results: The main source of As, Cd, Hg, Pb, Sb and Zn in the upper part of the study area was the tailing material. Based on the pollution indices, about 72% of the studied samples show a high risk of contamination and are mainly distributed immediately downstream of the tailings dump that was spilled due to heavy rainfall. Conclusions: Although the content of the PTEs is high, there is no non-carcinogenic risk for any PTEs except As, for which a threshold risk was determined. There is no carcinogenic risk in the study area.",
journal = "Land",
title = "Environmental and Health Risk Assessment Due to Potentially Toxic Elements in Soil near Former Antimony Mine in Western Serbia",
number = "2",
volume = "12",
doi = "10.3390/land12020421",
url = "conv_1688"
}

Belanović Simić, S., Miljković, P., Baumgertel, A., Lukić, S., Ljubičić, J.,& Čakmak, D.. (2023). Environmental and Health Risk Assessment Due to Potentially Toxic Elements in Soil near Former Antimony Mine in Western Serbia. in Land, 12(2).
https://doi.org/10.3390/land12020421
conv_1688

Belanović Simić S, Miljković P, Baumgertel A, Lukić S, Ljubičić J, Čakmak D. Environmental and Health Risk Assessment Due to Potentially Toxic Elements in Soil near Former Antimony Mine in Western Serbia. in Land. 2023;12(2).
doi:10.3390/land12020421
conv_1688 .

Belanović Simić, Snežana, Miljković, Predrag, Baumgertel, Aleksandar, Lukić, Sara, Ljubičić, Janko, Čakmak, Dragan, "Environmental and Health Risk Assessment Due to Potentially Toxic Elements in Soil near Former Antimony Mine in Western Serbia" in Land, 12, no. 2 (2023),
https://doi.org/10.3390/land12020421 .,
conv_1688 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Marković, Mladen
AU  - Lukić, Sara
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
PY  - 2023
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1402
AB  - Successful planning and maintenance of roads in winter conditions require knowledge of the factors that cause snowdrifts and their complex interactions. For this reason, analyses of snowdrift formations rely on the simplification of empirical and analytical patterns of mutual relations between the snowdrift formation factors. This paper analyzes snowdrift endangerment of the state road network in the Autonomous Province (AP) of Vojvodina, through which the important international roads E-75, E-70 and E-662 pass. High wind speeds, low forest cover and flat terrain make AP Vojvodina highly susceptible to snowdrifts. The formation factors of snowdrifts that cause snow drifting in this area, namely the quantity of transported snow, wind speed and extreme winter temperatures, were analyzed. Data on wind speed and extreme winter temperatures from 11 climatological stations were analyzed for the winter period from 2000/2001 to 2019/2020. As one of the principal factors in the formation of snowdrifts, the quantity of transported snow was calculated based on data on the height of the snow cover for these stations and the research period. The sensitivity of each snowdrift factor was calculated using fuzzy logic. Thereafter, the overall sensitivity of the road network to the formation of snowdrifts was determined by synthesizing the sensitivity to each of the selected factors of snowdrift formation (sensitivity to the quantity of transported snow, wind speed and extreme winter temperatures) and was classified into five classes (very low, low, medium, high and very high). The highest degree of sensitivity to the formation of snowdrifts in AP Vojvodina was observed on the roads in South Banat. By identifying the road network sections at greater risk of snowdrifts, this research can serve as a valuable guideline for developing management plans during the winter period. Understanding the potential hazards posed by snowdrifts can help in implementing measures to ensure the safety of road users and minimize the environmental impact associated with road maintenance activities, thus contributing to sustainability and environmental protection.
T2  - Environmental Engineering and Management Journal
T1  - Sensitivity analysis of roads to snowdrifts in the autonomous province Vojvodina area, republic of Serbia
EP  - 790
IS  - 4
SP  - 779
VL  - 22
DO  - 10.30638/eemj.2023.061
UR  - conv_1731
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Marković, Mladen and Lukić, Sara and Baumgertel, Aleksandar",
year = "2023",
abstract = "Successful planning and maintenance of roads in winter conditions require knowledge of the factors that cause snowdrifts and their complex interactions. For this reason, analyses of snowdrift formations rely on the simplification of empirical and analytical patterns of mutual relations between the snowdrift formation factors. This paper analyzes snowdrift endangerment of the state road network in the Autonomous Province (AP) of Vojvodina, through which the important international roads E-75, E-70 and E-662 pass. High wind speeds, low forest cover and flat terrain make AP Vojvodina highly susceptible to snowdrifts. The formation factors of snowdrifts that cause snow drifting in this area, namely the quantity of transported snow, wind speed and extreme winter temperatures, were analyzed. Data on wind speed and extreme winter temperatures from 11 climatological stations were analyzed for the winter period from 2000/2001 to 2019/2020. As one of the principal factors in the formation of snowdrifts, the quantity of transported snow was calculated based on data on the height of the snow cover for these stations and the research period. The sensitivity of each snowdrift factor was calculated using fuzzy logic. Thereafter, the overall sensitivity of the road network to the formation of snowdrifts was determined by synthesizing the sensitivity to each of the selected factors of snowdrift formation (sensitivity to the quantity of transported snow, wind speed and extreme winter temperatures) and was classified into five classes (very low, low, medium, high and very high). The highest degree of sensitivity to the formation of snowdrifts in AP Vojvodina was observed on the roads in South Banat. By identifying the road network sections at greater risk of snowdrifts, this research can serve as a valuable guideline for developing management plans during the winter period. Understanding the potential hazards posed by snowdrifts can help in implementing measures to ensure the safety of road users and minimize the environmental impact associated with road maintenance activities, thus contributing to sustainability and environmental protection.",
journal = "Environmental Engineering and Management Journal",
title = "Sensitivity analysis of roads to snowdrifts in the autonomous province Vojvodina area, republic of Serbia",
pages = "790-779",
number = "4",
volume = "22",
doi = "10.30638/eemj.2023.061",
url = "conv_1731"
}

Marković, M., Lukić, S.,& Baumgertel, A.. (2023). Sensitivity analysis of roads to snowdrifts in the autonomous province Vojvodina area, republic of Serbia. in Environmental Engineering and Management Journal, 22(4), 779-790.
https://doi.org/10.30638/eemj.2023.061
conv_1731

Marković M, Lukić S, Baumgertel A. Sensitivity analysis of roads to snowdrifts in the autonomous province Vojvodina area, republic of Serbia. in Environmental Engineering and Management Journal. 2023;22(4):779-790.
doi:10.30638/eemj.2023.061
conv_1731 .

Marković, Mladen, Lukić, Sara, Baumgertel, Aleksandar, "Sensitivity analysis of roads to snowdrifts in the autonomous province Vojvodina area, republic of Serbia" in Environmental Engineering and Management Journal, 22, no. 4 (2023):779-790,
https://doi.org/10.30638/eemj.2023.061 .,
conv_1731 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Caković, Milica
AU  - Beloica, Jelena
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
AU  - Stojcić, Marko
AU  - Vasić, Filip
AU  - Schwaiger, Fritz
PY  - 2023
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1380
AB  - Agricultural, industrial, and human activities in general threaten water quality, as well as the biotic integrity of aquatic ecosystems. The increased concentration of total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) affects high concentrations of chlorophyll (Chl-a) in freshwater ecosystems, which causes the process of eutrophication of the waters of shallow lakes. Eutrophication, as an alarming threat to the global quality of surface waters, affects environmental degradation. This research assesses the risk of eutrophication caused by chemical oxygen demand (COD), TN, TP, Secchi disk (SD), and Chl-a using the trophic level index (TLI) in Palic and Ludas lakes. Both lakes have been nominated as potential Natura 2000 areas in 2021 because they belong to important bird areas, and Ludas Lake has the status of Ramsar site 3YU002. In the research period from 2011 to 2021, the results showed that the lake is in an extremely eutrophic state. Laboratory analyses indicate an increased concentration of Chl-a during autumn. In the paper, the normalized difference chlorophyll index (NDCI) was calculated using the Google Earth Engine platform, and the result indicates the loading of the lake throughout the year, with an emphasis on winter, summer, and autumn. By using satellite images and remote sensing, it is possible to determine the most degraded spots, which is a help to the researchers in choosing the places where the samples will be taken and thus act more efficiently on the most endangered parts, as well as reduce the costs of standard in situ methods.
T2  - Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
T1  - Eutrophication assessment in Pannonian Basin (the case of Ludas Lake Special Nature Reserve and Palic Nature Park)
IS  - 6
VL  - 195
DO  - 10.1007/s10661-023-11347-x
UR  - conv_1709
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Caković, Milica and Beloica, Jelena and Baumgertel, Aleksandar and Stojcić, Marko and Vasić, Filip and Schwaiger, Fritz",
year = "2023",
abstract = "Agricultural, industrial, and human activities in general threaten water quality, as well as the biotic integrity of aquatic ecosystems. The increased concentration of total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) affects high concentrations of chlorophyll (Chl-a) in freshwater ecosystems, which causes the process of eutrophication of the waters of shallow lakes. Eutrophication, as an alarming threat to the global quality of surface waters, affects environmental degradation. This research assesses the risk of eutrophication caused by chemical oxygen demand (COD), TN, TP, Secchi disk (SD), and Chl-a using the trophic level index (TLI) in Palic and Ludas lakes. Both lakes have been nominated as potential Natura 2000 areas in 2021 because they belong to important bird areas, and Ludas Lake has the status of Ramsar site 3YU002. In the research period from 2011 to 2021, the results showed that the lake is in an extremely eutrophic state. Laboratory analyses indicate an increased concentration of Chl-a during autumn. In the paper, the normalized difference chlorophyll index (NDCI) was calculated using the Google Earth Engine platform, and the result indicates the loading of the lake throughout the year, with an emphasis on winter, summer, and autumn. By using satellite images and remote sensing, it is possible to determine the most degraded spots, which is a help to the researchers in choosing the places where the samples will be taken and thus act more efficiently on the most endangered parts, as well as reduce the costs of standard in situ methods.",
journal = "Environmental Monitoring and Assessment",
title = "Eutrophication assessment in Pannonian Basin (the case of Ludas Lake Special Nature Reserve and Palic Nature Park)",
number = "6",
volume = "195",
doi = "10.1007/s10661-023-11347-x",
url = "conv_1709"
}

Caković, M., Beloica, J., Baumgertel, A., Stojcić, M., Vasić, F.,& Schwaiger, F.. (2023). Eutrophication assessment in Pannonian Basin (the case of Ludas Lake Special Nature Reserve and Palic Nature Park). in Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 195(6).
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11347-x
conv_1709

Caković M, Beloica J, Baumgertel A, Stojcić M, Vasić F, Schwaiger F. Eutrophication assessment in Pannonian Basin (the case of Ludas Lake Special Nature Reserve and Palic Nature Park). in Environmental Monitoring and Assessment. 2023;195(6).
doi:10.1007/s10661-023-11347-x
conv_1709 .

Caković, Milica, Beloica, Jelena, Baumgertel, Aleksandar, Stojcić, Marko, Vasić, Filip, Schwaiger, Fritz, "Eutrophication assessment in Pannonian Basin (the case of Ludas Lake Special Nature Reserve and Palic Nature Park)" in Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 195, no. 6 (2023),
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11347-x .,
conv_1709 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Lukić, Sara
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
AU  - Obradović, Snežana
AU  - Kadović, Ratko
AU  - Beloica, Jelena
AU  - Pantić, Damjan
AU  - Miljković, Predrag
AU  - Belanović Simić, Snežana
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1349
AB  - Land degradation is a complex issue caused by diverse drivers, each of which should be considered in the analysis of land sensitivity to degradation. This study identifies the areas most sensitive to land degradation in the Grdelica Gorge and Vranjska Valley, which are unique in terms of natural and socioeconomic conditions. Land-use changes and inappropriate land management have led to serious degradation in this region. The flexible and multifactorial approach of the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) model allowed comprehensive land degradation sensitivity analysis in the study area. The main factors driving soil degradation were assessed by estimating climate quality index, soil quality index, and vegetation quality index, and the main socioeconomic indicators by management quality index and social quality index. The results showed that forest cover is the main factor to contrast land degradation, and even minor adverse changes in forest characteristics, such as structure, canopy cover, health, and quality, could trigger degradation processes. The vegetation quality index was defined in terms of the current vegetation???s capacity to protect soil from erosion, drought resistance, and fire risk. Detailed data on forest vegetation cover was obtained from the National Forest Inventory (NFI). The environmentally sensitive area (ESA) index generated through the analysis classified 26.11% of the total study area as critical, 69.53% as fragile, and 2.70% as either prone to or unaffected by degradation processes. According to the ESA index, the areas covered by forests with optimal species composition and high canopy cover were the least susceptible to degradation. The areas under intensive agricultural production without any application of conservation measures were the most susceptible to degradation. Future strategies for optimal land-use patterns are discussed, such as the intergration of woody species in croplands to protect soil against degradation and meet human needs in the areas prone to degradation.
T2  - Iforest-Biogeosciences and Forestry
T1  - Assessment of land sensitivity to degradation using MEDALUS model-a case study of Grdelica Gorge and Vranjska Valley (southeastern Serbia)
EP  - 170
SP  - 163
VL  - 15
DO  - 10.3832/ifor3871-015
UR  - conv_1636
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Lukić, Sara and Baumgertel, Aleksandar and Obradović, Snežana and Kadović, Ratko and Beloica, Jelena and Pantić, Damjan and Miljković, Predrag and Belanović Simić, Snežana",
year = "2022",
abstract = "Land degradation is a complex issue caused by diverse drivers, each of which should be considered in the analysis of land sensitivity to degradation. This study identifies the areas most sensitive to land degradation in the Grdelica Gorge and Vranjska Valley, which are unique in terms of natural and socioeconomic conditions. Land-use changes and inappropriate land management have led to serious degradation in this region. The flexible and multifactorial approach of the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) model allowed comprehensive land degradation sensitivity analysis in the study area. The main factors driving soil degradation were assessed by estimating climate quality index, soil quality index, and vegetation quality index, and the main socioeconomic indicators by management quality index and social quality index. The results showed that forest cover is the main factor to contrast land degradation, and even minor adverse changes in forest characteristics, such as structure, canopy cover, health, and quality, could trigger degradation processes. The vegetation quality index was defined in terms of the current vegetation???s capacity to protect soil from erosion, drought resistance, and fire risk. Detailed data on forest vegetation cover was obtained from the National Forest Inventory (NFI). The environmentally sensitive area (ESA) index generated through the analysis classified 26.11% of the total study area as critical, 69.53% as fragile, and 2.70% as either prone to or unaffected by degradation processes. According to the ESA index, the areas covered by forests with optimal species composition and high canopy cover were the least susceptible to degradation. The areas under intensive agricultural production without any application of conservation measures were the most susceptible to degradation. Future strategies for optimal land-use patterns are discussed, such as the intergration of woody species in croplands to protect soil against degradation and meet human needs in the areas prone to degradation.",
journal = "Iforest-Biogeosciences and Forestry",
title = "Assessment of land sensitivity to degradation using MEDALUS model-a case study of Grdelica Gorge and Vranjska Valley (southeastern Serbia)",
pages = "170-163",
volume = "15",
doi = "10.3832/ifor3871-015",
url = "conv_1636"
}

Lukić, S., Baumgertel, A., Obradović, S., Kadović, R., Beloica, J., Pantić, D., Miljković, P.,& Belanović Simić, S.. (2022). Assessment of land sensitivity to degradation using MEDALUS model-a case study of Grdelica Gorge and Vranjska Valley (southeastern Serbia). in Iforest-Biogeosciences and Forestry, 15, 163-170.
https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor3871-015
conv_1636

Lukić S, Baumgertel A, Obradović S, Kadović R, Beloica J, Pantić D, Miljković P, Belanović Simić S. Assessment of land sensitivity to degradation using MEDALUS model-a case study of Grdelica Gorge and Vranjska Valley (southeastern Serbia). in Iforest-Biogeosciences and Forestry. 2022;15:163-170.
doi:10.3832/ifor3871-015
conv_1636 .

Lukić, Sara, Baumgertel, Aleksandar, Obradović, Snežana, Kadović, Ratko, Beloica, Jelena, Pantić, Damjan, Miljković, Predrag, Belanović Simić, Snežana, "Assessment of land sensitivity to degradation using MEDALUS model-a case study of Grdelica Gorge and Vranjska Valley (southeastern Serbia)" in Iforest-Biogeosciences and Forestry, 15 (2022):163-170,
https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor3871-015 .,
conv_1636 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Savić, Radovan
AU  - Stajić, Milica
AU  - Blagojević, Boško
AU  - Bezdan, Atila
AU  - Vranesević, Milica
AU  - Nikolić-Jokanović, Vesna
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
AU  - Bubalo Kovacić, Marina
AU  - Horvatinec, Jelena
AU  - Ondrasek, Gabrijel
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1281
AB  - Conserving clean and safe freshwater is a global challenge, with nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) as frequent limiting factors affecting water quality due to eutrophication. This paper provides a critical overview of the spatiotemporal variability in both nutrient concentrations and their total mass ratio (TN:TP) in the canal network of the Hydro system Danube-Tisza-Danube at 21 measuring locations monitored by the Environmental Protection Agency of the Republic of Serbia over a length of almost 1000 km, collected once a month during the last decade. A spatiotemporal variation in nutrient concentrations in the tested surface water samples was confirmed by correlations and cluster analyses. The highest TN concentrations were found in winter and early spring (non-vegetation season), and the highest TP concentrations in the middle of the year (vegetation season). The TN:TP mass ratio as an indicator of the eutrophication pointed out N and P co-limitation (TN:TP 8-24) in 64% of samples, N limitation (TN:TP  lt  8) was detected in 27% and P limitation (TN:TP  gt  24) in the remaining 9% of water samples. Such observations indicate slow-flowing, lowland water courses exposed to the effects of non-point and point contamination sources as nutrient runoff from the surrounding farmlands and/or urban and industrial zones, but further investigation is needed for clarification. These results are an important starting point for reducing N and P runoff loads and controlling source pollution to improve water quality and underpin recovery from eutrophication in the studied watershed.
T2  - Agriculture-Basel
T1  - Nitrogen and Phosphorus Concentrations and Their Ratios as Indicators of Water Quality and Eutrophication of the Hydro-System Danube-Tisza-Danube
IS  - 7
VL  - 12
DO  - 10.3390/agriculture12070935
UR  - conv_1650
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Savić, Radovan and Stajić, Milica and Blagojević, Boško and Bezdan, Atila and Vranesević, Milica and Nikolić-Jokanović, Vesna and Baumgertel, Aleksandar and Bubalo Kovacić, Marina and Horvatinec, Jelena and Ondrasek, Gabrijel",
year = "2022",
abstract = "Conserving clean and safe freshwater is a global challenge, with nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) as frequent limiting factors affecting water quality due to eutrophication. This paper provides a critical overview of the spatiotemporal variability in both nutrient concentrations and their total mass ratio (TN:TP) in the canal network of the Hydro system Danube-Tisza-Danube at 21 measuring locations monitored by the Environmental Protection Agency of the Republic of Serbia over a length of almost 1000 km, collected once a month during the last decade. A spatiotemporal variation in nutrient concentrations in the tested surface water samples was confirmed by correlations and cluster analyses. The highest TN concentrations were found in winter and early spring (non-vegetation season), and the highest TP concentrations in the middle of the year (vegetation season). The TN:TP mass ratio as an indicator of the eutrophication pointed out N and P co-limitation (TN:TP 8-24) in 64% of samples, N limitation (TN:TP  lt  8) was detected in 27% and P limitation (TN:TP  gt  24) in the remaining 9% of water samples. Such observations indicate slow-flowing, lowland water courses exposed to the effects of non-point and point contamination sources as nutrient runoff from the surrounding farmlands and/or urban and industrial zones, but further investigation is needed for clarification. These results are an important starting point for reducing N and P runoff loads and controlling source pollution to improve water quality and underpin recovery from eutrophication in the studied watershed.",
journal = "Agriculture-Basel",
title = "Nitrogen and Phosphorus Concentrations and Their Ratios as Indicators of Water Quality and Eutrophication of the Hydro-System Danube-Tisza-Danube",
number = "7",
volume = "12",
doi = "10.3390/agriculture12070935",
url = "conv_1650"
}

Savić, R., Stajić, M., Blagojević, B., Bezdan, A., Vranesević, M., Nikolić-Jokanović, V., Baumgertel, A., Bubalo Kovacić, M., Horvatinec, J.,& Ondrasek, G.. (2022). Nitrogen and Phosphorus Concentrations and Their Ratios as Indicators of Water Quality and Eutrophication of the Hydro-System Danube-Tisza-Danube. in Agriculture-Basel, 12(7).
https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12070935
conv_1650

Savić R, Stajić M, Blagojević B, Bezdan A, Vranesević M, Nikolić-Jokanović V, Baumgertel A, Bubalo Kovacić M, Horvatinec J, Ondrasek G. Nitrogen and Phosphorus Concentrations and Their Ratios as Indicators of Water Quality and Eutrophication of the Hydro-System Danube-Tisza-Danube. in Agriculture-Basel. 2022;12(7).
doi:10.3390/agriculture12070935
conv_1650 .

Savić, Radovan, Stajić, Milica, Blagojević, Boško, Bezdan, Atila, Vranesević, Milica, Nikolić-Jokanović, Vesna, Baumgertel, Aleksandar, Bubalo Kovacić, Marina, Horvatinec, Jelena, Ondrasek, Gabrijel, "Nitrogen and Phosphorus Concentrations and Their Ratios as Indicators of Water Quality and Eutrophication of the Hydro-System Danube-Tisza-Danube" in Agriculture-Basel, 12, no. 7 (2022),
https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12070935 .,
conv_1650 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
AU  - Lukić, Sara
AU  - Caković, Milica
AU  - Miljković, Predrag
AU  - Tošić, Milica
AU  - Lazić, Irida
AU  - Đurđević, Vladimir
AU  - Marković, Mladen
PY  - 2022
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1291
AB  - Climate indicators (temperature and precipitation) are particularly important in times of global climate change because they create the preconditions for the development of wind erosion. The main goal of this research is to analyse the land's susceptibility to wind erosion in the future, using the fuzzy logic for the non-growing season (March and November) as well as for the growing season (July). The climate factor (CF) has been calculated for four different time periods: 1971-2000, 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The data were extracted for 11 different combinations of regional climate models (RCMs) and global climate models (GCMs) using the EURO-CORDEX database. The climate sensitivity to wind erosion is bound to be significantly higher in the growing season (late 21st century) due to the increase in the average monthly air temperature and the decrease in precipitation.
T2  - International Journal of Global Warming
T1  - Spatiotemporal analysis of the future sensitivity to wind erosion using ensemble of the regional climate models: a case study
EP  - 299
IS  - 3
SP  - 284
VL  - 27
DO  - 10.1504/IJGW.2022.124203
UR  - conv_1646
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Baumgertel, Aleksandar and Lukić, Sara and Caković, Milica and Miljković, Predrag and Tošić, Milica and Lazić, Irida and Đurđević, Vladimir and Marković, Mladen",
year = "2022",
abstract = "Climate indicators (temperature and precipitation) are particularly important in times of global climate change because they create the preconditions for the development of wind erosion. The main goal of this research is to analyse the land's susceptibility to wind erosion in the future, using the fuzzy logic for the non-growing season (March and November) as well as for the growing season (July). The climate factor (CF) has been calculated for four different time periods: 1971-2000, 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The data were extracted for 11 different combinations of regional climate models (RCMs) and global climate models (GCMs) using the EURO-CORDEX database. The climate sensitivity to wind erosion is bound to be significantly higher in the growing season (late 21st century) due to the increase in the average monthly air temperature and the decrease in precipitation.",
journal = "International Journal of Global Warming",
title = "Spatiotemporal analysis of the future sensitivity to wind erosion using ensemble of the regional climate models: a case study",
pages = "299-284",
number = "3",
volume = "27",
doi = "10.1504/IJGW.2022.124203",
url = "conv_1646"
}

Baumgertel, A., Lukić, S., Caković, M., Miljković, P., Tošić, M., Lazić, I., Đurđević, V.,& Marković, M.. (2022). Spatiotemporal analysis of the future sensitivity to wind erosion using ensemble of the regional climate models: a case study. in International Journal of Global Warming, 27(3), 284-299.
https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2022.124203
conv_1646

Baumgertel A, Lukić S, Caković M, Miljković P, Tošić M, Lazić I, Đurđević V, Marković M. Spatiotemporal analysis of the future sensitivity to wind erosion using ensemble of the regional climate models: a case study. in International Journal of Global Warming. 2022;27(3):284-299.
doi:10.1504/IJGW.2022.124203
conv_1646 .

Baumgertel, Aleksandar, Lukić, Sara, Caković, Milica, Miljković, Predrag, Tošić, Milica, Lazić, Irida, Đurđević, Vladimir, Marković, Mladen, "Spatiotemporal analysis of the future sensitivity to wind erosion using ensemble of the regional climate models: a case study" in International Journal of Global Warming, 27, no. 3 (2022):284-299,
https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2022.124203 .,
conv_1646 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Caković, Milica
AU  - Beloica, Jelena
AU  - Belanović Simić, Snežana
AU  - Miljković, Predrag
AU  - Lukić, Sara
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
AU  - Schwaiger, Fritz
PY  - 2021
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1199
AB  - Diffuse water pollution from agriculture (DWPA) is one of the major factors causing water pollution in Lakes Palic and Ludas, the two largest shallow lakes of the Pannonian Basin in Serbia. These two lakes are protected under national and international law. On the basis of the number of strictly protected bird species, Ludas Lake has been classified as a wetland of international importance since 1977 (Ramsar site 3YU002); in 2021, both lakes were nominated as potential Natura 2000 areas. Despite the degree of protection and ecological significance of the area, agricultural land prevails. By a process of land expropriation during 2019, the buffer zone began to expand around the lakes, which should lead to a reduction in pollution. One of the goals of buffer-zone development is to enhance and restore the ecological connectivity of the remaining forest-steppe habitats. During the expropriation process, soil was sampled to record areas with the highest pollution. This paper assesses the environmental risk caused by phosphorus, nitrogen, and the accumulation of heavy metals (Zn, Cu, Pb, Cr, Ni, Mn, Cd, and Hg). For each heavy metal, the corresponding pollution indices (Igeo, PI, EF, Eri, RI, Nemerow) and soil contamination level were calculated. Pollution indices indicate the ecological risk under the influence of heavy metals in the following order: Cd  gt  Cu  gt  Ni  gt  Zn  gt  Pb  gt  Cr  gt  Hg. Results showed that concentrations of Cd exceeded the maximal permissible concentration in all examined soil samples, and high ecological risk areas were determined. High concentrations of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium were detected, which could be as a result of intensive agricultural activity. Current conservation measures in this area have not provided adequate protection of the natural environment. Accordingly, existing measures must be controlled or new, more restrictive measures must be prescribed.
T2  - Forests
T1  - Diffuse Pollution and Ecological Risk Assessment in Ludas Lake Special Nature Reserve and Palic Nature Park (Pannonian Basin)
IS  - 11
VL  - 12
DO  - 10.3390/f12111461
UR  - conv_1596
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Caković, Milica and Beloica, Jelena and Belanović Simić, Snežana and Miljković, Predrag and Lukić, Sara and Baumgertel, Aleksandar and Schwaiger, Fritz",
year = "2021",
abstract = "Diffuse water pollution from agriculture (DWPA) is one of the major factors causing water pollution in Lakes Palic and Ludas, the two largest shallow lakes of the Pannonian Basin in Serbia. These two lakes are protected under national and international law. On the basis of the number of strictly protected bird species, Ludas Lake has been classified as a wetland of international importance since 1977 (Ramsar site 3YU002); in 2021, both lakes were nominated as potential Natura 2000 areas. Despite the degree of protection and ecological significance of the area, agricultural land prevails. By a process of land expropriation during 2019, the buffer zone began to expand around the lakes, which should lead to a reduction in pollution. One of the goals of buffer-zone development is to enhance and restore the ecological connectivity of the remaining forest-steppe habitats. During the expropriation process, soil was sampled to record areas with the highest pollution. This paper assesses the environmental risk caused by phosphorus, nitrogen, and the accumulation of heavy metals (Zn, Cu, Pb, Cr, Ni, Mn, Cd, and Hg). For each heavy metal, the corresponding pollution indices (Igeo, PI, EF, Eri, RI, Nemerow) and soil contamination level were calculated. Pollution indices indicate the ecological risk under the influence of heavy metals in the following order: Cd  gt  Cu  gt  Ni  gt  Zn  gt  Pb  gt  Cr  gt  Hg. Results showed that concentrations of Cd exceeded the maximal permissible concentration in all examined soil samples, and high ecological risk areas were determined. High concentrations of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium were detected, which could be as a result of intensive agricultural activity. Current conservation measures in this area have not provided adequate protection of the natural environment. Accordingly, existing measures must be controlled or new, more restrictive measures must be prescribed.",
journal = "Forests",
title = "Diffuse Pollution and Ecological Risk Assessment in Ludas Lake Special Nature Reserve and Palic Nature Park (Pannonian Basin)",
number = "11",
volume = "12",
doi = "10.3390/f12111461",
url = "conv_1596"
}

Caković, M., Beloica, J., Belanović Simić, S., Miljković, P., Lukić, S., Baumgertel, A.,& Schwaiger, F.. (2021). Diffuse Pollution and Ecological Risk Assessment in Ludas Lake Special Nature Reserve and Palic Nature Park (Pannonian Basin). in Forests, 12(11).
https://doi.org/10.3390/f12111461
conv_1596

Caković M, Beloica J, Belanović Simić S, Miljković P, Lukić S, Baumgertel A, Schwaiger F. Diffuse Pollution and Ecological Risk Assessment in Ludas Lake Special Nature Reserve and Palic Nature Park (Pannonian Basin). in Forests. 2021;12(11).
doi:10.3390/f12111461
conv_1596 .

Caković, Milica, Beloica, Jelena, Belanović Simić, Snežana, Miljković, Predrag, Lukić, Sara, Baumgertel, Aleksandar, Schwaiger, Fritz, "Diffuse Pollution and Ecological Risk Assessment in Ludas Lake Special Nature Reserve and Palic Nature Park (Pannonian Basin)" in Forests, 12, no. 11 (2021),
https://doi.org/10.3390/f12111461 .,
conv_1596 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Caković, Milica
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
AU  - Lukić, Sara
AU  - Dragović, Nada
AU  - Zlatić, Miodrag
PY  - 2021
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1196
AB  - Integrated watershed management is based on the application of various biological and technical works, and administration measure to reduce the degradation process. The paper presents an analysis of the effects of performed biological works as part of integrated watershed management within the Grdelica Gorge and Vranjska Valley. Extensive erosion control works were carried out in the second half of the 20th century. As vegetation is one of the key factors in mitigating the erosion process, the paper presents the trend of connecting the surface with the vegetation cover, which results from inylemented biological measures. Using multispectral satellite imagery (Landsat missions) for 1972, 1986, 1996, and 2017, the vegetation index (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index - NDVI) was analyzed in torrent basins, which were afforested to control severe erosion processes. The increasing trend of vegetated areas was recorded in period from 1986 to 1996 (very low vegetation coverage 40.1956 in 1986 and 8.19 % in 1996, respectively), which continues to grow until 2017 when the very low vegetation coverage was 0.26 %, and moderately high vegetation coverage was 50.63 %.
T2  - Šumarski list
T1  - Effects of biological works within the integrated watershed management of torrent catchments in the area of Grdelica gorge and Vranjska valley (Serbia)
EP  - 465
IS  - 9-10
SP  - 459
VL  - 145
DO  - 10.31298/sl.145.9-10.4
UR  - conv_1582
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Caković, Milica and Baumgertel, Aleksandar and Lukić, Sara and Dragović, Nada and Zlatić, Miodrag",
year = "2021",
abstract = "Integrated watershed management is based on the application of various biological and technical works, and administration measure to reduce the degradation process. The paper presents an analysis of the effects of performed biological works as part of integrated watershed management within the Grdelica Gorge and Vranjska Valley. Extensive erosion control works were carried out in the second half of the 20th century. As vegetation is one of the key factors in mitigating the erosion process, the paper presents the trend of connecting the surface with the vegetation cover, which results from inylemented biological measures. Using multispectral satellite imagery (Landsat missions) for 1972, 1986, 1996, and 2017, the vegetation index (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index - NDVI) was analyzed in torrent basins, which were afforested to control severe erosion processes. The increasing trend of vegetated areas was recorded in period from 1986 to 1996 (very low vegetation coverage 40.1956 in 1986 and 8.19 % in 1996, respectively), which continues to grow until 2017 when the very low vegetation coverage was 0.26 %, and moderately high vegetation coverage was 50.63 %.",
journal = "Šumarski list",
title = "Effects of biological works within the integrated watershed management of torrent catchments in the area of Grdelica gorge and Vranjska valley (Serbia)",
pages = "465-459",
number = "9-10",
volume = "145",
doi = "10.31298/sl.145.9-10.4",
url = "conv_1582"
}

Caković, M., Baumgertel, A., Lukić, S., Dragović, N.,& Zlatić, M.. (2021). Effects of biological works within the integrated watershed management of torrent catchments in the area of Grdelica gorge and Vranjska valley (Serbia). in Šumarski list, 145(9-10), 459-465.
https://doi.org/10.31298/sl.145.9-10.4
conv_1582

Caković M, Baumgertel A, Lukić S, Dragović N, Zlatić M. Effects of biological works within the integrated watershed management of torrent catchments in the area of Grdelica gorge and Vranjska valley (Serbia). in Šumarski list. 2021;145(9-10):459-465.
doi:10.31298/sl.145.9-10.4
conv_1582 .

Caković, Milica, Baumgertel, Aleksandar, Lukić, Sara, Dragović, Nada, Zlatić, Miodrag, "Effects of biological works within the integrated watershed management of torrent catchments in the area of Grdelica gorge and Vranjska valley (Serbia)" in Šumarski list, 145, no. 9-10 (2021):459-465,
https://doi.org/10.31298/sl.145.9-10.4 .,
conv_1582 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
AU  - Lukić, Sara
AU  - Belanović Simić, Snežana
AU  - Kadović, Ratko
PY  - 2019
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/995
AB  - Wind erosion is one of the most significant forms of land degradation which occurs in arid and semi-arid regions. Agricultural land is significantly affected by wind erosion, which leads to soil quality reduction, and consequently to economic losses. This research was conducted in the autonomous province (AP) of Vojvodina (a region dominated by agriculture), which represents one of the most important economic regions in the Republic of Serbia. The aim of this research was to identify areas sensitive to wind erosion (in the month of March) in the AP Vojvodina by using fuzzy logic, remote sensing data, and geographical information systems (GIS). The data of prior research on erosion sediment were used for results validation. The results show that the hazardous sensitivity category covers approximately 60.41% of the research area, while the medium sensitive category accounts for 36% of the area. These findings are primarily a result of the lack of vegetation in almost the entire area, particularly in wind-exposed agricultural areas with no vegetation, which are being prepared for sowing. Another factor putting such a large area at risk is the unfavorable climate (especially in southeastern parts of the area), and slightly less favorable soil properties in the north. The results of this research could be used in decision-making at the regional level, along with the development and implementation of programs aimed at mitigating the effects of wind erosion.
T2  - Applied Sciences-Basel
T1  - Identifying Areas Sensitive to Wind Erosion-A Case Study of the AP Vojvodina (Serbia)
IS  - 23
VL  - 9
DO  - 10.3390/app9235106
UR  - conv_1476
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Baumgertel, Aleksandar and Lukić, Sara and Belanović Simić, Snežana and Kadović, Ratko",
year = "2019",
abstract = "Wind erosion is one of the most significant forms of land degradation which occurs in arid and semi-arid regions. Agricultural land is significantly affected by wind erosion, which leads to soil quality reduction, and consequently to economic losses. This research was conducted in the autonomous province (AP) of Vojvodina (a region dominated by agriculture), which represents one of the most important economic regions in the Republic of Serbia. The aim of this research was to identify areas sensitive to wind erosion (in the month of March) in the AP Vojvodina by using fuzzy logic, remote sensing data, and geographical information systems (GIS). The data of prior research on erosion sediment were used for results validation. The results show that the hazardous sensitivity category covers approximately 60.41% of the research area, while the medium sensitive category accounts for 36% of the area. These findings are primarily a result of the lack of vegetation in almost the entire area, particularly in wind-exposed agricultural areas with no vegetation, which are being prepared for sowing. Another factor putting such a large area at risk is the unfavorable climate (especially in southeastern parts of the area), and slightly less favorable soil properties in the north. The results of this research could be used in decision-making at the regional level, along with the development and implementation of programs aimed at mitigating the effects of wind erosion.",
journal = "Applied Sciences-Basel",
title = "Identifying Areas Sensitive to Wind Erosion-A Case Study of the AP Vojvodina (Serbia)",
number = "23",
volume = "9",
doi = "10.3390/app9235106",
url = "conv_1476"
}

Baumgertel, A., Lukić, S., Belanović Simić, S.,& Kadović, R.. (2019). Identifying Areas Sensitive to Wind Erosion-A Case Study of the AP Vojvodina (Serbia). in Applied Sciences-Basel, 9(23).
https://doi.org/10.3390/app9235106
conv_1476

Baumgertel A, Lukić S, Belanović Simić S, Kadović R. Identifying Areas Sensitive to Wind Erosion-A Case Study of the AP Vojvodina (Serbia). in Applied Sciences-Basel. 2019;9(23).
doi:10.3390/app9235106
conv_1476 .

Baumgertel, Aleksandar, Lukić, Sara, Belanović Simić, Snežana, Kadović, Ratko, "Identifying Areas Sensitive to Wind Erosion-A Case Study of the AP Vojvodina (Serbia)" in Applied Sciences-Basel, 9, no. 23 (2019),
https://doi.org/10.3390/app9235106 .,
conv_1476 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
AU  - Dragović, Nada
AU  - Vulević, Tijana
AU  - Lukić, Sara
PY  - 2019
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1049
AB  - This paper aimed to estimate the contingency reserves for the project related to the integrated management of Topciderska river in Serbia watershed, in the context of cost management, as a part of the risk analysis. The Monte Carlo simulation was used to determine the reserves. After the simulation, the distribution of probability for technical and biological works and distribution of probability of total costs was obtained. Cost contingency reserves are determined based on the difference between the costs specified by the project budget and the simulated total costs with 90% probability of occurrence. The cost reserve for the execution of the project amounted 19.45% of the total costs of estimated bill of quantities.
T2  - Wasserwirtschaft
T1  - Cost management as a part of integrated management of torrential watershed in Serbia: a case study of Topciderska River
EP  - 38
IS  - 4
SP  - 33
VL  - 109
DO  - 10.1007/s35147-019-0023-9
UR  - conv_1402
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Baumgertel, Aleksandar and Dragović, Nada and Vulević, Tijana and Lukić, Sara",
year = "2019",
abstract = "This paper aimed to estimate the contingency reserves for the project related to the integrated management of Topciderska river in Serbia watershed, in the context of cost management, as a part of the risk analysis. The Monte Carlo simulation was used to determine the reserves. After the simulation, the distribution of probability for technical and biological works and distribution of probability of total costs was obtained. Cost contingency reserves are determined based on the difference between the costs specified by the project budget and the simulated total costs with 90% probability of occurrence. The cost reserve for the execution of the project amounted 19.45% of the total costs of estimated bill of quantities.",
journal = "Wasserwirtschaft",
title = "Cost management as a part of integrated management of torrential watershed in Serbia: a case study of Topciderska River",
pages = "38-33",
number = "4",
volume = "109",
doi = "10.1007/s35147-019-0023-9",
url = "conv_1402"
}

Baumgertel, A., Dragović, N., Vulević, T.,& Lukić, S.. (2019). Cost management as a part of integrated management of torrential watershed in Serbia: a case study of Topciderska River. in Wasserwirtschaft, 109(4), 33-38.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s35147-019-0023-9
conv_1402

Baumgertel A, Dragović N, Vulević T, Lukić S. Cost management as a part of integrated management of torrential watershed in Serbia: a case study of Topciderska River. in Wasserwirtschaft. 2019;109(4):33-38.
doi:10.1007/s35147-019-0023-9
conv_1402 .

Baumgertel, Aleksandar, Dragović, Nada, Vulević, Tijana, Lukić, Sara, "Cost management as a part of integrated management of torrential watershed in Serbia: a case study of Topciderska River" in Wasserwirtschaft, 109, no. 4 (2019):33-38,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s35147-019-0023-9 .,
conv_1402 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Momirović, Natalija
AU  - Kadović, Ratko
AU  - Perović, Veljko
AU  - Marjanović, Miloš
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
PY  - 2019
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/1001
AB  - In this paper, the assessment of the sensitivity of the soil in the rural area of Cukarica municipality to the processes of degradation is considered. Land areas, especially in the vicinity of large cities, are exposed to numerous processes of degradation: soil erosion, urban and industrial zone expansion at the expense of fertile agricultural soils, activation of landslides and a number of other significant ecological problems. Based on the characteristics of the research area, the MEDALUS (Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use) model was applied, and for the assessment of sensitivity to the processes of degradation the main quality indicators were considered: soil, climate, vegetation and management. For each of the analyzed quality indicators, parameter groups were identified. Each parameter is quantified according to the defined method by giving them a sensitivity coefficient between 1.0 and 2.0. ArcGIS 10.0 has been applied to analyze and prepare layers of quality maps. Subsequently, the geometric mean for all four quality indicators was used to generate the map of environmental sensitivity to degradation. The results obtained show that 41.54% of the study area is classified as critical; 22.34% of the surface as fragile; 8.47% of the areas are potentially endangered and 9.58% not threatened to degradation processes. The results have also shown that MEDALUS model is a functional tool for simulations which support sustainable land management in the areas prone to degradation.
PB  - KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
T2  - International Soil and Water Conservation Research
T1  - Spatial assessment of the areas sensitive to degradation in the rural area of the municipality Cukarica
EP  - 80
IS  - 1
SP  - 71
VL  - 7
UR  - conv_2355
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Momirović, Natalija and Kadović, Ratko and Perović, Veljko and Marjanović, Miloš and Baumgertel, Aleksandar",
year = "2019",
abstract = "In this paper, the assessment of the sensitivity of the soil in the rural area of Cukarica municipality to the processes of degradation is considered. Land areas, especially in the vicinity of large cities, are exposed to numerous processes of degradation: soil erosion, urban and industrial zone expansion at the expense of fertile agricultural soils, activation of landslides and a number of other significant ecological problems. Based on the characteristics of the research area, the MEDALUS (Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use) model was applied, and for the assessment of sensitivity to the processes of degradation the main quality indicators were considered: soil, climate, vegetation and management. For each of the analyzed quality indicators, parameter groups were identified. Each parameter is quantified according to the defined method by giving them a sensitivity coefficient between 1.0 and 2.0. ArcGIS 10.0 has been applied to analyze and prepare layers of quality maps. Subsequently, the geometric mean for all four quality indicators was used to generate the map of environmental sensitivity to degradation. The results obtained show that 41.54% of the study area is classified as critical; 22.34% of the surface as fragile; 8.47% of the areas are potentially endangered and 9.58% not threatened to degradation processes. The results have also shown that MEDALUS model is a functional tool for simulations which support sustainable land management in the areas prone to degradation.",
publisher = "KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.",
journal = "International Soil and Water Conservation Research",
title = "Spatial assessment of the areas sensitive to degradation in the rural area of the municipality Cukarica",
pages = "80-71",
number = "1",
volume = "7",
url = "conv_2355"
}

Momirović, N., Kadović, R., Perović, V., Marjanović, M.,& Baumgertel, A.. (2019). Spatial assessment of the areas sensitive to degradation in the rural area of the municipality Cukarica. in International Soil and Water Conservation Research
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.., 7(1), 71-80.
conv_2355

Momirović N, Kadović R, Perović V, Marjanović M, Baumgertel A. Spatial assessment of the areas sensitive to degradation in the rural area of the municipality Cukarica. in International Soil and Water Conservation Research. 2019;7(1):71-80.
conv_2355 .

Momirović, Natalija, Kadović, Ratko, Perović, Veljko, Marjanović, Miloš, Baumgertel, Aleksandar, "Spatial assessment of the areas sensitive to degradation in the rural area of the municipality Cukarica" in International Soil and Water Conservation Research, 7, no. 1 (2019):71-80,
conv_2355 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Lukić, Sara
AU  - Belanović Simić, Snežana
AU  - Pantić, Damjan
AU  - Beloica, Jelena
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
AU  - Miljković, Predrag
AU  - Borota, Dragan
AU  - Kadović, Ratko
PY  - 2018
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/926
AB  - Field shelterbelts as agroforestry practice provides numerous ecosystem services. Carbon capture and storage potential in biomass and soil is among regulating services shelterbelts provide. Designing shelterbelts to address the various demands and provide services, requests special attention to choosing structural and spatial characteristics of shelterbelts, and species selection for shelterbelts. This paper presents the research results of C storage in 20-years old shelterbelts established on Gleyic Phaeozem in the area of Bačka Palanka (Serbia). Investigated shelterbelts were consisted of the most commonly used species for shelterbelt establishment in Serbia: Siberian elm (Ulmus pumila L.), poplar (Populus x euramericana (Dode) Guin. cv. "Serotina") and black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.). The diameter at breast height (d) and the height (h) of all trees in studied shelterbelts were measured. Carbon stock in biomass was estimated according to IPCC (2003) methodology. Soil profiles were opened in studied shelterbelts with soil sampling carried out at fixed depths of 0-10 cm, 10-20 cm and 20-40 cm. Assessment of carbon storage in soil was performed according to IPCC (2003). According to the research results, living biomass C stock in 20-years old Siberian elm and poplar shelterbelts per tree is almost the same 0.333 t per tree and 0.300 t per tree, respectively. In black locust shelterbelt carbon stock is considerable less 0.111 t per tree. However, in species selection for shelterbelts some characteristics should take into account such as adaptability and suitability to the environmental conditions, longevity and their impact on crops that are grown in the sheltered fields, as well as the natural potential vegetation communities of the area. The results of this study indicate that the poplar is preferred species than the Siberian elm in given environmental conditions. The average carbon stock in the soil of studied shelterbelts in a layer 0-40 cm is 9.33 kg m-2 C.
T2  - Agrofor
T1  - Carbon storage in shelterbelts in the agroforestry systems of the Bačka Palanka area-Serbia
EP  - 90
IS  - 2
SP  - 80
VL  - 3
DO  - 10.7251/AGRENG1802080L
UR  - conv_807
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Lukić, Sara and Belanović Simić, Snežana and Pantić, Damjan and Beloica, Jelena and Baumgertel, Aleksandar and Miljković, Predrag and Borota, Dragan and Kadović, Ratko",
year = "2018",
abstract = "Field shelterbelts as agroforestry practice provides numerous ecosystem services. Carbon capture and storage potential in biomass and soil is among regulating services shelterbelts provide. Designing shelterbelts to address the various demands and provide services, requests special attention to choosing structural and spatial characteristics of shelterbelts, and species selection for shelterbelts. This paper presents the research results of C storage in 20-years old shelterbelts established on Gleyic Phaeozem in the area of Bačka Palanka (Serbia). Investigated shelterbelts were consisted of the most commonly used species for shelterbelt establishment in Serbia: Siberian elm (Ulmus pumila L.), poplar (Populus x euramericana (Dode) Guin. cv. "Serotina") and black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.). The diameter at breast height (d) and the height (h) of all trees in studied shelterbelts were measured. Carbon stock in biomass was estimated according to IPCC (2003) methodology. Soil profiles were opened in studied shelterbelts with soil sampling carried out at fixed depths of 0-10 cm, 10-20 cm and 20-40 cm. Assessment of carbon storage in soil was performed according to IPCC (2003). According to the research results, living biomass C stock in 20-years old Siberian elm and poplar shelterbelts per tree is almost the same 0.333 t per tree and 0.300 t per tree, respectively. In black locust shelterbelt carbon stock is considerable less 0.111 t per tree. However, in species selection for shelterbelts some characteristics should take into account such as adaptability and suitability to the environmental conditions, longevity and their impact on crops that are grown in the sheltered fields, as well as the natural potential vegetation communities of the area. The results of this study indicate that the poplar is preferred species than the Siberian elm in given environmental conditions. The average carbon stock in the soil of studied shelterbelts in a layer 0-40 cm is 9.33 kg m-2 C.",
journal = "Agrofor",
title = "Carbon storage in shelterbelts in the agroforestry systems of the Bačka Palanka area-Serbia",
pages = "90-80",
number = "2",
volume = "3",
doi = "10.7251/AGRENG1802080L",
url = "conv_807"
}

Lukić, S., Belanović Simić, S., Pantić, D., Beloica, J., Baumgertel, A., Miljković, P., Borota, D.,& Kadović, R.. (2018). Carbon storage in shelterbelts in the agroforestry systems of the Bačka Palanka area-Serbia. in Agrofor, 3(2), 80-90.
https://doi.org/10.7251/AGRENG1802080L
conv_807

Lukić S, Belanović Simić S, Pantić D, Beloica J, Baumgertel A, Miljković P, Borota D, Kadović R. Carbon storage in shelterbelts in the agroforestry systems of the Bačka Palanka area-Serbia. in Agrofor. 2018;3(2):80-90.
doi:10.7251/AGRENG1802080L
conv_807 .

Lukić, Sara, Belanović Simić, Snežana, Pantić, Damjan, Beloica, Jelena, Baumgertel, Aleksandar, Miljković, Predrag, Borota, Dragan, Kadović, Ratko, "Carbon storage in shelterbelts in the agroforestry systems of the Bačka Palanka area-Serbia" in Agrofor, 3, no. 2 (2018):80-90,
https://doi.org/10.7251/AGRENG1802080L .,
conv_807 .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Baumgertel, Aleksandar
AU  - Dragović, Nada
AU  - Vulević, Tijana
PY  - 2016
UR  - https://omorika.sfb.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/742
AB  - Kod realizacije projekata za uređenje bujičnih slivova mogu da se pojave različiti nepredviđeni nepovoljni događaji koji za posledicu imaju prekoračenje vremena, povećanje troškova, smanjenje kvaliteta i dr. U radu su prikazane osnovne karakteristike protiverozionih radova i rizici koji se najčešće pojavljuju kod njihovog izvođenja. Takođe, daje se kratak prikaz upravljanja rizicima kroz osnovne faze, od identifikacije rizika, analize rizika do reakcije na rizik, kao i prikaz metoda koje se koriste u analizi rizika. U okviru kvantitativnih metoda prikazane su matematičke simulacije. Monte Carlo metod je stohastička simulaciona metoda koja zahteva sledeće korake u primeni: identifikacija kriterijumske i relevantnih promenljivih, dodela raspodele verovatnoće za relevantne promenljive, određivanje koeficijenta korelacije među relevantnim promenljivim, izvođenje simulacije i analiza rezultata. Ovom metodom izvršena je analiza ukupnih troškova realizacije projekta regulacije reke Dumača u cilju iznalaženja količine finansijskih sredstava koja bi se koristila kao rezerva u slučaju nepredviđenih nepovoljnih događaja. Projektom regulacije reke Dumača predviđeno je uređenje korita u formi složenog proticajnog profila sa oblaganjem zona gde je to neophodno sa aspekta stabilnosti. Ukupni troškovi su predstavljeni kao zbir troškova svih grupa radova (pripremni, zemljani, zidarski, betonski i završni). Monte Carlo simulacija za analizu troškova izvršena je pomoću programa Oracle Crystal Ball čiji osnovni koraci za primenu su opisani u radu. Na osnovu simuliranih ukupnih troškova realizacije projekta dobijena je suma finansijskih sredstava potrebna kao rezerva u slučaju nepredviđenih događaja.
AB  - Projects for the regulation of torrent basins carry various unforeseen adverse effects that may result in breached deadlines, increased costs, a reduction of quality etc. The paper presents the basic characteristics and most frequent risks associated with erosion control. Furthermore, it provides an overview of risk management through its basic stages - starting from risk identification and risk analysis to risk responses, including the methods used for risk analysis. As a part of quantitative methods for risk analysis, the Monte Carlo method is presented as the one most frequently used in simulations. The Monte Carlo method is a stochastic simulation method consisting of the following stages: the identification of criterion and relevant variables, the allocation of probability for relevant variables, the determination of correlation coefficient among relevant variables, simulation execution and result analysis. This method was applied in the analysis of the total cost of the project for the basin regulation of the Dumača River in order to determine the funding that would be used as a backup in case of unforeseen events with a negative impact. The project for the regulation of the Dumača River includes basin regulation in the form of complex flow profile and the lining of zones where necessary in terms of stability. The total cost is presented as a sum of costs of all works (preliminary works, earthworks, masonry works, concrete works and finishing works). The Monte Carlo simulation for cost analysis is carried out using the Oracle Crystal Ball software with its basic steps described in the paper. A sum of funding needed as a financial backup in case of unforeseen events with negative effects is obtained as the simulated total cost of the project.
PB  - Univerzitet u Beogradu - Šumarski fakultet, Beograd
T2  - Glasnik Šumarskog fakulteta
T1  - Upravljanje rizicima na realizaciji projekta za odbranu od bujičnih poplava primenom Monte Carlo simulacije
T1  - Risk management of a torrential flood construction project using the Monte Carlo simulation
EP  - 44
IS  - 114
SP  - 29
DO  - 10.2298/GSF1614029B
UR  - conv_440
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Baumgertel, Aleksandar and Dragović, Nada and Vulević, Tijana",
year = "2016",
abstract = "Kod realizacije projekata za uređenje bujičnih slivova mogu da se pojave različiti nepredviđeni nepovoljni događaji koji za posledicu imaju prekoračenje vremena, povećanje troškova, smanjenje kvaliteta i dr. U radu su prikazane osnovne karakteristike protiverozionih radova i rizici koji se najčešće pojavljuju kod njihovog izvođenja. Takođe, daje se kratak prikaz upravljanja rizicima kroz osnovne faze, od identifikacije rizika, analize rizika do reakcije na rizik, kao i prikaz metoda koje se koriste u analizi rizika. U okviru kvantitativnih metoda prikazane su matematičke simulacije. Monte Carlo metod je stohastička simulaciona metoda koja zahteva sledeće korake u primeni: identifikacija kriterijumske i relevantnih promenljivih, dodela raspodele verovatnoće za relevantne promenljive, određivanje koeficijenta korelacije među relevantnim promenljivim, izvođenje simulacije i analiza rezultata. Ovom metodom izvršena je analiza ukupnih troškova realizacije projekta regulacije reke Dumača u cilju iznalaženja količine finansijskih sredstava koja bi se koristila kao rezerva u slučaju nepredviđenih nepovoljnih događaja. Projektom regulacije reke Dumača predviđeno je uređenje korita u formi složenog proticajnog profila sa oblaganjem zona gde je to neophodno sa aspekta stabilnosti. Ukupni troškovi su predstavljeni kao zbir troškova svih grupa radova (pripremni, zemljani, zidarski, betonski i završni). Monte Carlo simulacija za analizu troškova izvršena je pomoću programa Oracle Crystal Ball čiji osnovni koraci za primenu su opisani u radu. Na osnovu simuliranih ukupnih troškova realizacije projekta dobijena je suma finansijskih sredstava potrebna kao rezerva u slučaju nepredviđenih događaja., Projects for the regulation of torrent basins carry various unforeseen adverse effects that may result in breached deadlines, increased costs, a reduction of quality etc. The paper presents the basic characteristics and most frequent risks associated with erosion control. Furthermore, it provides an overview of risk management through its basic stages - starting from risk identification and risk analysis to risk responses, including the methods used for risk analysis. As a part of quantitative methods for risk analysis, the Monte Carlo method is presented as the one most frequently used in simulations. The Monte Carlo method is a stochastic simulation method consisting of the following stages: the identification of criterion and relevant variables, the allocation of probability for relevant variables, the determination of correlation coefficient among relevant variables, simulation execution and result analysis. This method was applied in the analysis of the total cost of the project for the basin regulation of the Dumača River in order to determine the funding that would be used as a backup in case of unforeseen events with a negative impact. The project for the regulation of the Dumača River includes basin regulation in the form of complex flow profile and the lining of zones where necessary in terms of stability. The total cost is presented as a sum of costs of all works (preliminary works, earthworks, masonry works, concrete works and finishing works). The Monte Carlo simulation for cost analysis is carried out using the Oracle Crystal Ball software with its basic steps described in the paper. A sum of funding needed as a financial backup in case of unforeseen events with negative effects is obtained as the simulated total cost of the project.",
publisher = "Univerzitet u Beogradu - Šumarski fakultet, Beograd",
journal = "Glasnik Šumarskog fakulteta",
title = "Upravljanje rizicima na realizaciji projekta za odbranu od bujičnih poplava primenom Monte Carlo simulacije, Risk management of a torrential flood construction project using the Monte Carlo simulation",
pages = "44-29",
number = "114",
doi = "10.2298/GSF1614029B",
url = "conv_440"
}

Baumgertel, A., Dragović, N.,& Vulević, T.. (2016). Upravljanje rizicima na realizaciji projekta za odbranu od bujičnih poplava primenom Monte Carlo simulacije. in Glasnik Šumarskog fakulteta
Univerzitet u Beogradu - Šumarski fakultet, Beograd.(114), 29-44.
https://doi.org/10.2298/GSF1614029B
conv_440

Baumgertel A, Dragović N, Vulević T. Upravljanje rizicima na realizaciji projekta za odbranu od bujičnih poplava primenom Monte Carlo simulacije. in Glasnik Šumarskog fakulteta. 2016;(114):29-44.
doi:10.2298/GSF1614029B
conv_440 .

Baumgertel, Aleksandar, Dragović, Nada, Vulević, Tijana, "Upravljanje rizicima na realizaciji projekta za odbranu od bujičnih poplava primenom Monte Carlo simulacije" in Glasnik Šumarskog fakulteta, no. 114 (2016):29-44,
https://doi.org/10.2298/GSF1614029B .,
conv_440 .