The influence of climate change on invasive plants spreading in degraded native communities at several localities in Belgrade

Abstract

In this paper the analysis of plant indicator values, several environmental variables and climate change within invaded ecosystems are presented. The aim of the paper was to investigate how climate change will affect floristic structure and distribution. Plant indicator values were determined according to Kojic et al. (1997). Canonical Correspondence Analysis was performed for Asteretum lanceolati community at 13 different sites in broader Belgrade area (Serbia) using Past 3.12 software (Hammer et al. 2001). For analyzing the effects of climate change IPCC's SRES scenarios were used (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000). Coupled Regional Climate Model, EBU-POM (Djurdjevic and Rajkovic 2008) is used for the climate simulations. The strongest gradients influencing communities at these sites are moisture and soil nutrients. The communities are mesophylic, mesothermic to thermophylic, and soils have mostly basic pH reaction, which is characteristic for alluvial habitats, and preferred by named community. The communities prefer such habitats. Communities have the ability to adapt to a great range of environmental condition. According to climate change analysis, long periods of decreased amounts of precipitation, and high temperatures will not be suitable for vast majority of species, especially ones with high demands on water supply, such as: Alisma plantago-aquatica L., Galium palustre L., Oenanthe aquatic (L.) Poir., Rorippa amphibia (L.) Besser, Veronica anagallis-aquatica L., Carex lasiocarpa Ehrh., etc. Also, high temperatures and high amounts of precipitation will be significant for the already prolonged flowering period, and the life cycle of many invasive plants. It is found that many plants in the studied communities are alarming examples, because they are allelopathic clonal plants which can strongly cause the displacement of native plants.