Procena isplativosti proizvodnje drveta u zasadima topole u ravnom Sremu na bazi neto sadašnje vrednosti

Abstract

U radu je prikazana analiza komercijalne isplativosti gajenja topola prema indikatoru za procenu projekata u poljoprivredi i šumarstvu-neto sadašnje vrednosti (NPV). Analiza je urađena za zasade topole klona I-214 na području Ravnog Srema, pri različitim ophodnjama i na različitim tipovima zemljišta. Cilj istraživanja je da se na osnovu analize troškova i prihoda u različitim periodima starosti zasada, korišćenjem metode neto sadašnje vrednosti, proveri opravdanost uloženih finansijskih sredstava u proizvodnju drveta u zasadima topole. Pri kalkulativnoj diskontnoj stopi od 12%, projekat je za trajanje proizvodnog ciklusa od 24-42 godine neisplativ sa ekonomskog stanovišta. Investiranje pri kalkulativnoj stopi od 4% je finansijski opravdano u svim posmatranim slučajevima. Kraći proizvodni ciklusi u mlađim sastojinama (do 28 godina starosti) na boljim staništima (aluvijalni semiglej) mogu da 'istrpe' i diskontne stope od 6%. U slučaju ispitivanja osetljivosti za NPV može se zaključiti da su iznosi za NPV za 13 posmatranih odeljenja u posmatranom rasponu prihoda i troškova sa negativnim predznakom. To upućuje na zaključak da je projekat osetljiviji na promene troškova nego na promene prihoda pri diskontnoj stopi od 12%.

The commercial cost-effectiveness of poplar cultivation was analyzed based on the indicator for the assessment of agriculture and forestry projects-net present value (NPV). The analysis was made for the plantations of poplar clone I-214 in the area of Ravni Srem, under different rotations and on different soil types. The aim of the research was to assess the cost-effectiveness of the invested financials in wood production in poplar plantations, based on the analysis of costs and receipts in different periods of plantation age, using the net present value method. Under the calculation discount rate of 12%, the project for the production cycle of 24-42 years was not cost-effective from the economic aspect. Investment under calculation discount rate 4% was financially justified in all the study cases. The discount rate of 6% can be accepted by shorter production cycles in the younger stands (to the age of 28 years) on better sites (alluvial semigley). In the case of susceptibility analysis for NPV, it can be concluded that the NPV amounts for 13 study compartments within the analyzed scope of receipts and costs have a negative sign. This leads to a conclusion that the project is more susceptible to the changes in costs than to the changes in receipts in the concrete case at the discount rate of 12%.